Milk market in the United States

Earlier Report Observations

U.S. milk market volume increased from 97.9 million tons in 2018 to 101.6 million tons in 2021. This expansion was supported by the implementation of the Federal Dairy Margin Coverage program in 2019, which provided payments to producers when margins fell, helping to sustain and encourage milk output. During this period, while fluid milk consumption continued a long-term decline, the market for plant-based alternatives like oat and soy milk grew, contributing to overall market growth.

Market volume stabilized around 101.7 million tons in 2022 and 2023. High feed costs, with corn prices above $6.50 per bushel for much of 2023, along with elevated energy and labor expenses, constrained production expansion. The U.S. dairy herd also contracted slightly, with cow numbers down 0.14% in 2023. Concurrently, dairy milk consumption fell by 4% in 2022, offset by a 5% rise in non-dairy milk consumption driven by lactose intolerance and taste preferences, reflecting a shift in consumer demand within the broader milk market.

In 2024, regulatory adjustments to Class I milk pricing and milk composition began to affect market dynamics. Fluid milk consumption rose by 0.6%, breaking a multi-year decline, fueled primarily by higher demand for whole milk. However, production faced limitations from challenges such as highly pathogenic avian influenza and a shortage of replacement heifers, keeping overall output growth in check.

Production milk in the United States

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

The United States was one of the world's top milk producers from 2017 to 2020, ranking second globally by production volume.

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in the United States grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 101.3 million tonnes of milk, marking a 2.2% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 3.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, B $ US

The value of milk production in the United States increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, output was valued at 232.7 billion US dollars, up 8.6% year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, production value grew by 21.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 177.7 billion US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2018, falling by 7.5%, while the biggest increase was in 2019, rising by 20.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in value, 2017-2020, B $ US

Exports milk from the United States

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, the United States exported 997.2 thousand tonnes of milk, an 11.8% increase compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 31.5%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 9.6%. The largest decline was in 2019, dropping by 0.4%, while the biggest increase was in 2018, rising by 18.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Mexico, the Philippines, and Indonesia were the top destinations for US milk exports by volume. Mexico accounted for 40.6% of exports, the Philippines for 9.8%, and Indonesia for 7.2%. Together, these three countries represented 57.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of milk exports from the United States rose for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 2 291 million US dollars, a significant 18.8% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value grew by 53.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Mexico, the Philippines, and Indonesia formed the core markets for US milk exports by value. Mexico contributed 40.1% of export value, the Philippines 10.4%, and Indonesia 8.0%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 58.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to the United States

Imports in kind, K t

Milk imports into the United States showed noticeable fluctuations during the period. The lowest volume was in 2017, while the highest was in 2019, with a 2.1-fold difference between these years. In 2020, imports amounted to 74.5 thousand tonnes, a sharp decrease of 37.3% year-over-year. The largest increase occurred in 2019, rising by 90.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Mexico, Canada, and Chile were the key sources of milk imports by volume into the United States. Mexico accounted for 36.5% of imports, Canada for 17.8%, and Chile for 12.8%. Together, these three countries represented 67.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of milk imports into the United States increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 190 million US dollars, a dramatic rise of 34.4% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import value grew by 46.2%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 13.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2017-2020, Mexico, Chile, and the Netherlands led as suppliers of milk to the United States by value. Mexico accounted for 38.0% of import value, Chile for 15.6%, and the Netherlands for 8.8%. Together, these three countries represented 62.4% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020