Maize market in Malawi

Earlier Report Observations

The maize market volume in Malawi grew steadily from 2.7 million tonnes in 2018 to a peak of 4.6 million tonnes in 2021. A key driver was a 25.6% increase in production during the 2019 season, achieved despite drought conditions in the vuli rainy season that tightened supply and kept market prices elevated.

After the 2021 peak, the market volume contracted to 3.7 million tonnes in 2022 and 3.5 million tonnes in 2023. During this period, the government's Agricultural Investment Plan (2018–2023) and subsequent investments in irrigation infrastructure aimed to scale up production and commercialization. Bilateral trade agreements with countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe were also established to enhance market access for Malawian maize.

Entering 2024, policy efforts intensified with a K22 billion allocation for maize procurement, the promotion of mega farms in partnership with Afreximbank, and the launch of a National Irrigation Policy to foster market-oriented production. However, these initiatives coincided with El Niño weather conditions, which posed a risk to yields and supply.

Production maize in Malawi

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize, 2017-2020

Malawi's maize production has increased for the second year in a row. In 2019, production stood at 3,692 thousand tonnes, rising by 8.8% to reach this level in 2020. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 6.6%, which translates to an average annual increase of 2.1%. The lowest production was recorded in 2018 at 2,698 thousand tonnes, marking a significant decline of 22.1% from the previous year. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest increase, with production jumping by 25.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Malawi in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize from Malawi

Exports in kind, t

Malawi's maize exports have declined for the second consecutive year. In 2019, exports were at 348 tonnes, but by 2020, they dropped sharply by 41.5% to this level. Over the four-year span from 2017 to 2020, exports fell by 77.1%, averaging an annual decrease of 38.8%. The peak export volume occurred in 2018 at 1,687 tonnes, which was an 11.1% increase from the previous year. However, the largest decline was recorded in 2019, with exports plummeting by 64.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Malawi in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the top buyers of maize from Malawi were Mozambique, accounting for 47.3% of exports in kind, Kenya with 18.3%, and Zambia at 11.6%. Together, these three countries made up 77.3% of Malawi's total maize exports in kind during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Malawi in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The value of maize exports from Malawi has decreased for the second year in a row. In 2019, exports were valued at 1,040 thousand US dollars, but by 2020, this figure fell by 69.7%. Between 2017 and 2020, export values dropped by 84.1%, with an average annual decline of 45.8%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 8,259 thousand US dollars, which represented a 26.5% increase from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Malawi in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During the 2017–2020 period, three key markets—Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia—collectively accounted for 78.1% of the total value of maize exports from Malawi.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Malawi in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize to Malawi

Imports in kind, t

The market for maize imports into Malawi showed significant volatility over these years. Imports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 211 tonnes, after hitting their peak in 2017—a dramatic 156-fold difference between these two years. In 2020, imports totaled 734 tonnes, marking a steep decline of 68.6% compared to 2019. The largest decrease occurred in 2018, with imports falling by 99.4%, while the biggest increase was in 2019, soaring by 1,007.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Malawi in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Zambia was the dominant source for maize imports into Malawi, making up 85.6% of total imports in kind. The remaining share was spread across several smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Malawi in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The data on maize import values into Malawi reveals irregular fluctuations, pointing to a volatile market. Imports hit their lowest point in 2018 at 1,331 thousand US dollars, following a peak in 2017—a swing of 13.6 times between these years. In 2020, imports rose to 7,553 thousand US dollars, representing a substantial gain of 157.8% over 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, with values dropping by 92.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Malawi in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In the 2017–2020 period, the leading suppliers of maize to Malawi in value terms were Zambia with 53.2%, Mexico at 25.0%, and Zimbabwe with 17.9%. Together, these three countries accounted for 96.1% of Malawi's total maize imports in value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Malawi in value, 2017-2020