Maize market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The volume of the maize market in Eastern Africa demonstrated significant growth from 2018 to 2023, rising from 34 178 thousand tons to 40 928 thousand tons. This upward trend was interrupted only by a minor contraction in 2019, followed by a sharp recovery in 2020. The market stabilized over the next two years before climbing again in 2023 to its highest point in the period.

In 2024, regional maize imports more than doubled to 2 381 thousand tons, a surge attributable to local production shortfalls and constrained cross-border trade. Drought in Zambia reduced available supplies, while export restrictions in Tanzania redirected regional trade flows. Concurrently, challenges in implementing national fertilizer subsidy programs, including the distribution of counterfeit inputs, introduced further volatility into the production landscape.

Production maize in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize, 2017-2020

Eastern Africa's maize production rebounded after two consecutive years of decline. In 2020, the region produced 36 234 thousand tons of maize, marking a significant 12.0% increase compared to the previous year. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 6%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 2.0%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 32 347 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 4.5% during this timeframe.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market for maize exports from Eastern Africa experienced notable fluctuations during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2018, with a 4.9-fold difference between these two years. In 2020, cross-border shipments of maize from Eastern Africa totaled 246 thousand tons, representing a 6.2% increase over the previous year. The highest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 513 thousand tons. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a drop of 54.8%, while the most significant increase was in 2018, surging by 391.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the primary partner for Eastern Africa's maize exports in kind, accounting for 0.8% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, cross-border shipments of maize from Eastern Africa amounted to 154.0 million US dollars, reflecting a substantial 13.7% increase compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, however, exports in value terms decreased by 28.2%, which corresponds to an average annual decline of 10.5%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 135.5 million US dollars, while the highest was in 2018 at 216.8 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a drop of 37.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (contributing 1.2% of exports in value terms), South Africa (1.1%), and Botswana (1.0%) were the top contributors to Eastern Africa's maize exports in value terms. Together, these three countries accounted for 3.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

The maize import market in Eastern Africa showed significant volatility during these years. Imports hit their lowest point in 2018 and peaked in 2020, with a 3.4-fold difference between these two years. In 2020, Eastern Africa imported 2 749 thousand tons of maize, indicating a sharp increase of 89.8% from the previous year. The minimum import volume was recorded in 2018 at 819 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 62.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, South Africa (accounting for 26.1% of imports in kind), Mexico (15.8%), and Argentina (9.4%) were the main sources of maize imports to Eastern Africa. Collectively, these three countries represented 51.3% of total import flows in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Market behavior for maize imports in value terms was characterized by volatility during this period. Import values reached their peak in 2017 and dropped to their lowest point in 2019, with a 2.4-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Eastern Africa imported approximately 557.7 million US dollars worth of maize, marking a 90.1% increase compared to 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 293.4 million US dollars, while the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a drop of 55.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017–2020 period, South Africa (contributing 35.6% of imports in value terms), Mexico (15.7%), and Argentina (6.7%) were the leading suppliers of maize to Eastern Africa. Together, these three countries comprised 57.9% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020