In-shell walnuts market in China

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, the domestic market volume for in-shell walnuts in China grew from 836 thousand tons to 1 201 thousand tons. This expansion was driven by steady increases in production, which rose from 850 thousand tons to 1 350 thousand tons over the same period. Key growth drivers included government initiatives such as Yunnan Province's three-year action plan for high-quality walnut industry development launched in 2022, which promoted standardized cultivation and mechanized harvesting. Additionally, the industry received a boost from state-owned enterprises like the Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation Group establishing dedicated walnut industry development companies.

Despite the volume growth, the market value declined from 2 819 million US dollars to 2 190 million US dollars. This drop in value was caused by price pressure from overcapacity, noted as early as 2020, and intensified competition among processors due to low market entry barriers. Competition in adjacent segments, such as walnut beverages where leading company Yangyuan faced declining revenue, further contributed to overall price pressure.

Rising exports, which increased from 19 thousand tons to 152 thousand tons, supported production levels. Consumer preferences shifted towards healthy and personalized products, attracting younger generations and creating additional demand for walnut kernels and products like walnut oil. However, the industry continued to face challenges including low deep-processing levels, high labor costs, and insufficient mechanization, which limited value addition.

Production in-shell walnuts in China

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

China was the world's leading producer of in-shell walnuts from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of in-shell walnuts, 2017-2020

World map of production of in-shell walnuts, 2017-2020

China's in-shell walnut production grew for the second year in a row in 2020, reaching 1 100 thousand tonnes—a 10.0% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017–2020 period, production rose by 10%, averaging 3.2% growth per year. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 850 thousand tonnes, which marked the largest decline of 15.0%. In contrast, 2019 saw the biggest increase, with production jumping by 17.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the value of China's in-shell walnut output was 2 573 million US dollars, down 13.6% year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, production value fell by 40.1%, equivalent to an average annual decrease of 15.7%. The most significant drop occurred in 2018, when value declined by 33.2%, while 2019 experienced a modest increase of 3.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports in-shell walnuts from China

Exports in kind, t

Export volumes showed considerable volatility during this period. In 2017, exports hit their lowest point, then surged to a peak of 74 036 tonnes in 2019—a 288.7% increase that year. By 2020, exports from China totaled 72 459 tonnes, a slight decrease of 2.1% from 2019. Overall, exports varied by a factor of 10.2 between the trough in 2017 and the peak in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Turkey were the primary markets for China's in-shell walnut exports by volume. Kyrgyzstan accounted for 35.8% of exports, Pakistan for 20.8%, and Turkey for 13.1%, together making up 69.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values exhibited irregular fluctuations, reflecting a volatile market. The lowest value was recorded in 2017, while the highest occurred in 2019 at 220.3 million US dollars—a 242.8% increase that year. In 2020, export value dropped to 169.5 million US dollars, down 23.1% from 2019. The difference between the peak in 2019 and the trough in 2017 was 7.1 times.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Turkey were the main destinations for China's in-shell walnut exports by value. Kyrgyzstan represented 37.8% of export value, Pakistan 24.3%, and Turkey 10.4%, collectively accounting for 72.5% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020

Imports in-shell walnuts to China

Imports in kind, t

After declining for two years, China's in-shell walnut imports rebounded in 2020, reaching 5 526 tonnes—a sharp increase of 25.4% from 2019. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports grew by 6.8%, averaging 2.2% per year. The lowest import volume was in 2019 at 4 407 tonnes, which saw a decline of 9.5% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Chile and the United States dominated China's in-shell walnut imports by volume, together supplying 96.3% of total imports. Other countries contributed relatively small shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year downturn, China's in-shell walnut import value rose in 2020 to 15.0 million US dollars, a solid 23.1% increase from the previous year. However, over the 2017–2020 period, import value decreased by 3.2%, with an average annual decline of 1.1%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 12.2 million US dollars, marking a 14.9% drop that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, Chile and the United States were the key suppliers for China's in-shell walnut imports by value, jointly accounting for 96.8% of total import flows, with other partners making up the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020