Beef and buffalo meat market in Japan

Earlier Report Observations

The Japanese beef market volume reached its peak in 2019 at 1,082 thousand tons, supported by the enforcement of the Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement which expanded low-tariff import quotas. This facilitated new market entries and business expansions, while growing consumer interest in healthy and functional meat products further bolstered demand. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a downturn in foodservice demand, causing a slight contraction in market volume to 1,073 thousand tons, though cheaper imported beef helped sustain overall consumption.

In the subsequent years, the market continued to contract, declining to 1,044 thousand tons by 2022. The liberalization of import restrictions and improved logistics enhanced market access, while the lifting of COVID-19 measures spurred a gradual recovery in restaurant and hotel demand. However, these positive drivers were offset by inflationary pressures and rising costs linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which dampened consumer spending, particularly on high-end wagyu beef. The establishment of labeling standards for raw beef in 2022 aimed to strengthen consumer safety but did not reverse the overall market decline.

By 2023, the market volume had fallen to 997 thousand tons, reflecting a persistent downward trend. Domestic production grew consistently, reaching 502 thousand tons in 2023, while imports—which constitute the majority of supply—contracted sharply to 504 thousand tons that year. Import volumes showed a temporary increase to 526 thousand tons in 2024 but are projected to fall again to 496 thousand tons in 2025, indicating a continued shift in supply structure amid an overall smaller market.

Production beef and buffalo meat in Japan

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Japan ranked as the world's 29th largest producer of beef and buffalo meat.

Top producers of beef and buffalo meat, 2018-2021

World map of production of beef and buffalo meat, 2018-2021

In 2021, Japan produced 477.6 K t of beef and buffalo meat, showing little change from the previous year. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 470.9 K t, which represented a 0.9% decline. Production then rebounded in 2020 with a 1.4% increase.

Annual dynamics of production in Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Following a two-year decline, Japan's beef and buffalo meat production value increased in 2021. Output was valued at 29 649 M $ US, marking a robust 11.1% rise compared to 2020. The lowest value occurred in 2020 at 26 679 M $ US, reflecting a 9.7% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production in Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports beef and buffalo meat from Japan

Exports in kind, K t

Japan's beef and buffalo meat export volume grew for the third consecutive year in 2021, reaching 7.9 K t—a 62.6% increase from the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, exports surged by 121.3%, averaging an annual growth rate of 30.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the top destinations for Japan's beef and buffalo meat exports in volume terms were Cambodia (25.9% of exports), Hong Kong (19.7%), and Asia, not elsewhere specified (14.8%). Together, these markets accounted for 60.4% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values showed irregular fluctuations, indicating a volatile market environment. The lowest value was recorded in 2018, while the highest occurred in 2021, with a 2.2-fold difference between these years. In 2021, exports totaled 489 M $ US, an 80.7% increase from 2020. The largest decline was in 2020 at 0.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Cambodia (27.6% of export value), Hong Kong (16.2%), and the United States (15.2%) formed the core of Japan's beef and buffalo meat exports in value terms, collectively representing 59.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021

Imports beef and buffalo meat to Japan

Imports in kind, K t

Japan's beef and buffalo meat import volume declined for the second consecutive year in 2021, falling to 584.8 K t—a 2.6% decrease year-over-year. From 2018 to 2021, imports dropped by 3.7%, averaging an annual decline of 1.3%. The peak import volume was in 2019 at 615.4 K t, which saw a 1.3% increase.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Australia and the United States dominated Japan's beef and buffalo meat imports in volume terms, together accounting for 86.5% of total flows, with the remainder distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Japan imported approximately 3 713 M $ US worth of beef and buffalo meat, reflecting a robust 11.1% improvement compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports increased by 6.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.2%. The lowest value was in 2020 at 3 343 M $ US, marking a 5.2% decline.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Australia and the United States remained the primary suppliers of beef and buffalo meat to Japan in value terms, jointly holding an 87.6% share of total imports, while other countries accounted for the fragmented remainder.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021