Zambia harvests record 4.9 million tonnes of maize, creating major export surplus

Expanded planting and rainfall lift production

Zambia has harvested an estimated 4.9 million tonnes of maize this season, the largest crop in the country’s history. Eyewitness News reported that production increased by 28% from last year, significantly expanding the volume available after domestic requirements are met.

Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo attributed the record result to an expansion in the area planted and above-average rainfall. The combination allowed Zambia to raise output sharply without the report identifying any comparable increase in domestic consumption.

The harvest provides a substantial buffer for the country’s food supply. Zambia consumes about 2.8 million tonnes of maize annually, according to Sihlobo. On that basis, the crop exceeds annual consumption by about 2.1 million tonnes, although he described the likely surplus available for export markets and the next season as close to 2 million tonnes.

Surplus opens room for additional exports

The excess gives Zambia scope to increase maize sales beyond its domestic market while retaining stocks for the following season. The eventual exportable volume will depend on how much grain is held in reserve, along with storage capacity, crop quality and the timing of government and commercial sales.

For traders and processors in Southern Africa, the Zambian surplus represents an additional regional source of maize. Greater nearby availability can shorten supply routes for deficit markets and reduce reliance on grain shipped over longer distances. The logistical benefit will still depend on border procedures, inland transport capacity and the ability to move grain from producing areas to regional buyers.

Sihlobo said Zambia’s crop would add to surplus supplies from South Africa, which also harvested about 17 million tonnes of maize. Together, the two crops improve maize availability across the broader Southern African region and give buyers more options when arranging supplies.

Larger stocks provide a buffer before El Niño

The timing is important because weather forecasters expect an El Niño phenomenon in the upcoming season, according to Sihlobo. If weather conditions reduce later harvests or increase concerns about supply, demand for the grain already available in Zambia and South Africa could strengthen.

The record crop therefore has two possible outlets: exports during the current marketing period and stocks carried into the next season. Producers gain a larger volume to market, while traders, millers and importers in neighboring countries receive access to more regional grain. Managing the balance between immediate sales and reserves will determine how much of Zambia’s roughly 2-million-tonne surplus reaches external markets and how much remains available as protection against a less favorable season.