World Bank identifies four investment opportunities for Kenya over five years
The World Bank sees investment potential in Kenya’s avocado and mango value chains, medical manufacturing and coastal tourism. Unlocking capital will require better logistics, predictable regulation, efficient licensing, access to finance and stronger market links.
Targeted reforms could unlock private capital
Kenya could attract significant private investment in avocado and mango supply chains, medical manufacturing and coastal tourism over the next five years if policymakers remove constraints identified by the World Bank. The opportunities are set out in the lender’s latest Country Private Sector Diagnostic, or CPSD 2.0, which assesses sectors from an investor’s perspective.
Rather than surveying the entire economy, the diagnostic focuses on activities where targeted policy changes could generate investment, employment and wider economic activity. The World Bank said the selections followed quantitative and qualitative analysis, consultations with investors and companies, and interviews with policymakers, technical experts and development partners.
Fruit exports need deeper domestic value chains
Avocado and mango offer the clearest route for converting Kenya’s agricultural base into higher-value exports, according to the diagnostic. Agriculture remains one of the country’s largest economic activities, but considerable value is still concentrated in primary production. Investment is needed in aggregation, cold storage, processing, packaging, logistics and export infrastructure, alongside stronger connections between smallholders and commercial investors.
Agriculture and Food Authority data cited by The Star valued Kenya’s 2023 avocado exports at about Sh19 billion on shipments of 114,073 tonnes. Mango exports reached 9,548 tonnes and Sh1.46 billion. More recent World Bank trade data put 2024 avocado exports at 129.7 million kilogrammes, worth approximately $160.8 million. Leading destinations included the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Spain, France and Germany.
The broader fresh-fruit sector has also expanded. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data show exports rising from 117,300 tonnes valued at Sh18.4 billion in 2021 to 225,400 tonnes worth Sh41 billion in 2024. The next challenge is to retain more value locally through processing and improved coordination between growers, packers, logistics providers and overseas buyers.
Medical manufacturing targets import dependence
The second major area is domestic production of health products. Kenya is seeking to reduce reliance on imported medicines and medical supplies, while the World Bank and Ministry of Health have examined ways to attract private capital into medical-consumables manufacturing. Procurement rules, regulatory processes and market access are central because they determine whether local factories can reach viable scale.
Kenya is also included in the World Bank’s Africa Initiative for Medical Access and Manufacturing, AIM2030. The programme aims to mobilise investment, strengthen regulatory systems, develop skills and establish regional supply chains. Successful implementation could support production across pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, medical devices and packaging, as well as laboratories and logistics, while creating an export platform for the wider African market.
Coastal tourism broadens beyond beach hotels
The fourth opportunity is tourism along the Indian Ocean coast. State data show accommodation and food services growing by 15.6 per cent in 2025. International arrivals through Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and Moi International Airport increased by 6.1 per cent to 1.96 million, while hotel bed nights reached 11.56 million.
The diagnostic highlights cruise tourism, marine activities, cultural tourism, ecotourism and higher-value hospitality as alternatives to the traditional beach-hotel model. The Kenya Tourism Board reported 140 per cent growth in the cruise industry by the end of 2025, while Mombasa was emerging as a turnaround port after a cruise vessel began offering itineraries involving passenger embarkation and disembarkation.
Across all four opportunities, the policy requirements are similar: improved infrastructure and logistics, predictable regulation, efficient licensing and standards, access to finance, and stronger links between producers and markets. The World Bank’s narrower CPSD 2.0 approach prioritises measures that can be implemented in the near term, but converting identified potential into committed capital will depend on how quickly Kenya lowers costs, approval delays and investor uncertainty.
