White House weighs refined copper tariffs as cost concerns delay decision
The White House has not made a final decision on proposed tariffs covering refined copper and concentrate. Officials are weighing support for US mining and smelting against higher costs for manufacturers and consumers.
Tariff decision remains unresolved
The White House has yet to make a final decision on tariffs for refined copper, as officials weigh efforts to rebuild domestic production against the risk of raising costs for American manufacturers and consumers. The review comes as the administration focuses increasingly on purchasing power ahead of the November midterm elections.
A White House official confirmed that the Department of Commerce provided President Donald Trump with an update by the June 30 deadline set by the administration. The official said all options remained under consideration as the government seeks to bring copper production and other critical manufacturing industries back to the United States. It was not immediately clear what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recommended.
Trump had instructed Lutnick to assess the copper market and recommend whether to introduce a 15% tariff from January 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The uncertainty means the market cannot assume that existing duties will be extended to refined products such as cathodes or to copper concentrate produced at mines.
Inventories rise as metal stays in the United States
Copper prices climbed to record levels amid expectations of broader US tariffs. Traders and industrial buyers accelerated purchases and accumulated material in the United States before any new levies, creating one of the world’s largest metal stockpiles. The report said the unresolved policy is also discouraging copper from returning to non-US markets, further tightening global availability.
Jacob White, a mining analyst at Sprott Asset Management, said the lack of a tariff decision reduces the incentive to move metal back into international markets. The situation echoes 2025, when traders expected a blanket duty on products containing copper. In July 2025, Trump instead imposed levies on pipes, wiring and other semi-finished goods, disappointing companies that mine the metal.
Domestic capacity versus downstream costs
The United States imports about half of the copper it consumes each year and has only two operating smelters, owned by Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto. According to United States Geological Survey data cited in the report, US refined-copper imports have increased 16-fold since 2015, while domestic production has fallen 20%. The country nevertheless holds enough domestic reserves for nearly 30 years.
Tariffs could make imported copper more expensive and improve the economics of US mining, smelting and refining projects. A Rio Tinto executive told Reuters earlier in the year that the current mix of copper mechanisms and tariffs did little to offset the difficult economics facing the company’s US smelter. The administration has also supported projects including BHP and Rio Tinto’s Resolution Copper project in Arizona and Antofagasta’s Twin Metals project in Minnesota. It has taken steps to prohibit exports of electronic waste containing copper.
The opposing risk falls on downstream industries. Copper is widely used in construction, transport, electronics, electrical equipment and automobiles, so broader duties could raise input costs across several manufacturing supply chains. S&P Global expects growth in artificial intelligence and defense to increase global copper demand by 50% by 2040. A tariff may therefore support domestic capacity over time, but it would initially affect a market already facing strong demand, record prices and restricted availability outside the United States.