Wheat futures diverge as US corn exports rise and soybean shipments fall
US winter and spring wheat futures moved in different directions on 10 August 2026, while corn eased and soybeans gained moderately. Export data showed stronger US corn shipments but weaker year-to-date wheat and soybean volumes.
Wheat contracts move in different directions
Global grain markets opened the week with mixed signals on 10 August 2026. According to ZOL, September soft red winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to $235.34 per tonne, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat slipped to $262.16 per tonne and Minneapolis hard red spring wheat fell to $246.18 per tonne. The September Chicago contract closed at $6.40-1/2 per bushel, up 3/4 cent. September Kansas City wheat lost 1/2 cent to $7.13-1/2, while September Minneapolis wheat dropped 9 1/2 cents to $6.70.
European wheat was weaker. September milling wheat on Euronext Paris fell 2.07% to €217.75 per tonne, equivalent to $251.68. December wheat closed at €230.25 per tonne. The Russian NTB CPT Novorossiysk wheat index stood at 13,716 roubles per tonne excluding VAT.
Harvest progress contrasts with slower wheat exports
US winter wheat harvesting was 91% complete by 9 August, in line with the normal pace, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Spring wheat harvesting reached 24%, ahead of the five-year average of 19%. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect US wheat production of 1.525 billion bushels, 11 million below the July forecast. They put season-ending stocks at 715 million bushels, down 7 million from the July estimate.
US wheat export inspections reached 421,277 tonnes in the week ended 6 August. Japan received 81,506 tonnes, Mexico 78,035 tonnes and the Philippines 66,000 tonnes. Cumulative marketing-year shipments were 3.332 million tonnes, 24.56% below the corresponding period a year earlier. APK-Inform also cut its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports in 2026/27 to 13.5 million tonnes, contributing to a projected 3.7-million-tonne reduction in total grain exports to 39.4 million tonnes.
Corn shipments provide support despite softer futures
Chicago corn futures edged lower: September closed at $4.38-1/4 per bushel, down 3/4 cent, while December lost 1/4 cent to $4.61-3/4. The US Department of Agriculture reported a private sale of 105,000 tonnes of new-crop corn to undisclosed destinations. Weekly export inspections were much larger at 1.74 million tonnes, including 422,988 tonnes for Mexico, 328,351 tonnes for Japan and 320,284 tonnes for Spain.
Cumulative US corn exports reached 79.02 million tonnes, 25% above the same point in the previous marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Reuters estimate production at 15.934 billion bushels and yield at 182.4 bushels per acre. In Brazil, AgRural said the second corn crop was 79% harvested in the south-central region, behind 88% a year earlier.
Soybeans gain as crop ratings decline
November soybeans rose 3 1/4 cents to $11.79-1/2 per bushel. NASS reported that 93% of the US crop was flowering and 74% had set pods by 9 August, five percentage points ahead of the five-year average, although the good-to-excellent rating fell one point to 62%.
Weekly US soybean exports were 399,201 tonnes, led by Germany with 86,260 tonnes, Mexico with 81,851 tonnes and Japan with 81,699 tonnes. Marketing-year shipments stood at 39.75 million tonnes, 17.9% below a year earlier. Reuters' trader survey placed soybean production at 4.472 billion bushels and projected new-crop ending stocks of 304 million bushels, 6 million below the July estimate.
