Wheat eases under harvest pressure as lower EU crop forecasts sustain volatility
Northern Hemisphere harvesting is weighing on wheat, while lower EU crop forecasts and buying by major importers continue to support the market. Soybean, corn, rapeseed and sunflower prices are diverging as demand competes with expectations of abundant new-crop supply.
Harvest pressure meets tighter EU expectations
Global grain and oilseed markets remain volatile as the Northern Hemisphere harvest brings new supply into commercial channels. Wheat prices are correcting under seasonal pressure, but reduced crop forecasts in the European Union and purchases by major importers are limiting the decline, according to a Ruseed market review published by ZOL.
The combination leaves wheat traders balancing immediate harvest availability against the risk of a tighter European balance. The source does not provide revised EU production volumes or wheat price changes, but identifies lower crop expectations and importer activity as the principal sources of support. Expectations of generally high new-crop availability nevertheless continue to cap the potential for a broader price recovery.
Soybean and corn demand provides support
China's stronger demand for US soybeans and steady US corn export sales are supporting oilseed and feed-grain quotations. Weekly FOB soybean prices rose 0.7% in Brazil but fell 1.9% in the United States, showing that improved demand has not produced uniform gains across origins.
Corn also weakened during the week. FOB Argentina prices declined 1.0%, while US FOB prices for No. 3 yellow corn fell 1.3%. The figures indicate that export sales are providing a floor rather than reversing pressure from anticipated new-crop supply.
Oilseed performance was similarly mixed. Rapeseed declined 0.2% FOB Canada and 4.0% FOB Australia. French FOB sunflower prices increased 2.5%, while Russian FOB sunflower oil slipped 0.4%. These differences matter for processors and importers comparing seed and vegetable-oil coverage across origins, particularly while harvest timing and local availability remain uneven.
Russian harvest raises domestic supply risk
In Russia, harvesting has covered almost 40% of the grain area, with yields substantially above last year's level. Winter rapeseed harvesting is gathering pace and yields are also higher year on year, while the sunflower and soybean harvests have not yet begun. Limited old-crop sunflower availability is supporting prices for now, but record sunflower and rapeseed planting areas could increase pressure if high yields coincide with a slow recovery in export logistics.
Domestic sunflower prices gained 0.6% during the week and stood 1.5% above the previous year's level. Demand from processors and scarce old-crop seed remain supportive, although an expected record sunflower harvest in 2026 points to a larger supply later in the season.
Rapeseed prices increased 0.2% for the week but remained 5–7% below a year earlier. Current yields are 9% higher year on year, and the combination of record planting and strong productivity is creating expectations for Russia's largest rapeseed harvest on record. Soybean prices also rose 0.2% during the week but were approximately 10% below last year's level. A smaller planted area means the 2026 soybean harvest is expected to be lower year on year, potentially limiting further price declines as harvesting accelerates.
