Weak bauxite prices and higher freight costs delay Cameroon’s Minim Martap project

Canyon removes production deadline

Cameroon’s plan to join the ranks of bauxite exporters in 2026 faces renewed uncertainty after Canyon Resources stopped providing a firm deadline for the start of mining at Minim Martap. In a statement published on 31 July, the company said only that the first shipment remained on schedule, according to La Tribune.

Extraction was initially planned for February 2026, before being postponed first to the second quarter and then to the third quarter. The inaugural shipment, originally expected by the end of the first half, was subsequently moved to the fourth quarter. Canyon has acknowledged that it is seeking financing to complete the first phase of development and reach the export stage.

Project assumptions face scrutiny

A2MP, Canyon’s majority shareholder, has challenged assumptions used in the feasibility study underpinning the project. The study applied an average quality premium of $11, or about €9.59, per tonne for Minim Martap bauxite and a freight cost of $17, or €14.82. A2MP argues that current conditions are better represented by a premium of $5, or €4.36, and transport costs of $32 to $36, equivalent to €27.89 to €31.37.

The revised assumptions would sharply narrow the value available after freight, increasing the project’s exposure to any further decline in benchmark prices. A2MP has asked Canyon to clarify the remaining funding requirement, infrastructure costs and updated economic assumptions. Canyon has not commented on its shareholder’s analysis.

A2MP is owned by Singapore family office Eagle Eye Asset Holdings. Its assessment requires caution because it supports a takeover offer announced during the same week at a price below Canyon’s recent market value. Canyon’s board still has to consider the proposal and issue a recommendation to shareholders.

Guinean supply weighs on prices

Market pressure is being reinforced by growing supply from Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite exporter. The country shipped 114.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, 15% more than a year earlier, La Tribune reported. Guinean bauxite was trading at about $38 to $39 per dry tonne on an FOB basis after falling in the spring to its lowest level since March 2022.

Conakry is considering export restrictions intended to support prices. Any such measure could affect the economics of competing West and Central African projects, but its impact would depend on the scale and timing of the restrictions. For Minim Martap, current price weakness compounds operational delays and a substantially higher estimate for moving ore to customers.

Cameroon’s mining strategy at stake

The implications extend beyond Canyon. Mining accounts for only 0.2% of Cameroon’s gross domestic product and less than 0.1% of public revenue, according to the World Bank, despite the country’s identified mineral resources.

In mid-July, Mines Minister Fuh Calistus Gentry included Minim Martap among five projects intended to launch a new industrial phase. Together with restructuring of the gold sector, these operations could generate more than CFAF1,000 billion, approximately €1.525 billion, annually in the short term, according to the minister—more than current oil revenue. Further delays at Minim Martap would therefore weaken a central element of Yaoundé’s effort to expand mining’s contribution to the economy.