Vietnam holds over 80% of the US pepper market but average export prices keep falling

Vietnamese pepper accounts for more than 80% of total US pepper imports, yet stronger shipment volumes are not feeding through to prices. Export tonnage is growing faster than export value, while a 12.5% US import tariff and a shrinking domestic crop weigh on margins along the chain, Vietnamese business outlet Thuong Gia reported.

According to figures from the Vietnam Customs Department, between the start of 2026 and 15 September the country exported more than 202,400 tonnes of pepper for $1.32 billion, up 15.2% in volume and 10.3% in value year on year. Because volume grew faster than revenue, the average export price fell 4.2% to $6,503 per tonne.

US demand outpaces the export average

The United States remains Vietnam's largest single outlet. In the first eight months of 2026 Vietnam shipped about 46,000 tonnes there, some 24% of total exports and around 24% more than in the same period of 2025, with value up 19%. By 15 September cumulative deliveries to the US had reached 47,254 tonnes, or 23.5% of all Vietnamese pepper exports.

Buying accelerated into September. In the first half of the month alone US importers took 2,905 tonnes, 62.4% more than a year earlier and equivalent to 26.6% of everything Vietnam shipped during those 15 days.

The pepper goes largely into processed food: meat products, savoury baked goods, snacks, sauces and seasoning blends such as BBQ and lemon pepper. A share above 80% of US pepper imports places Vietnamese material at the centre of the country's spice supply chain.

Market share without pricing power

A dominant share has not translated into control over price. The 12.5% US import duty on Vietnamese goods raises landed cost and makes importers more cautious, lengthening price negotiations. That additional cost is absorbed somewhere along the export chain, and the gap between volume growth and value growth suggests exporters are carrying part of it.

Smaller crop, more imported raw material

Supply at home is tightening. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) estimates 2026 national output at about 170,000 tonnes, down 12.8% from 2025, while export demand keeps rising. Processors have covered the gap by buying abroad: from the start of the year to 15 September Vietnam imported roughly 47,961 tonnes of pepper, about 35% more than a year earlier, mainly from Cambodia and Brazil. Part of that volume is processed domestically and re-exported to markets including the United States, Germany and the Middle East.

Imported raw material keeps contracts supplied but also helps explain why domestic prices have not followed export volumes. As of 23 September domestic trading prices ranged from 137,000 to 141,000 dong per kilogram, 2,000–4,000 dong higher than at the end of August but still 10,000–13,500 dong below the level at the start of the year.

Global stocks stay thin

VPSA expects world supply to remain constrained:

• output in Vietnam, Indonesia and India is falling on adverse weather and lower yields;
• higher production in Brazil does not cover the shortfall;
• stocks in producing countries are estimated at about 170,000 tonnes, of which Vietnam holds roughly 50,000–60,000 tonnes.

On that basis VPSA expects Vietnamese pepper exports to the US to remain stable over the medium and long term, while price competition intensifies. For the industry, the open question is converting a leading position in large markets into higher realised value for exporters and growers rather than higher tonnage alone.