Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports forecast to maintain growth in Q3

First-half exports rise 19.4%

Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports are forecast to maintain positive growth in the third quarter of 2026, supported by higher fruit production and recovering demand in major markets. According to An Ninh Thủ Đô, export revenue reached $3.7 billion in the first six months, an increase of 19.4% from the same period of 2025.

Production continued to expand during the first seven months of 2026 as a larger area entered harvest and weather conditions remained favorable, according to the Center for Industry and Trade Information under Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade. Output increased for most major fruit crops, helping secure supplies for both the domestic market and exports.

Durian and China drive the expansion

Durian remained the leading export product. Shipments were worth $520.8 million in June, rising 104.1% from May and 17.6% from June 2025. First-half durian exports exceeded $1.06 billion, up 26.4% year on year, and accounted for 46.0% of Vietnam’s total fresh-fruit export revenue. Banana and dragon fruit ranked second and third after durian by export value.

China purchased $970 million of Vietnamese durian during the period, 37.7% more than a year earlier. The market represented 91.0% of the country’s durian export revenue, followed by Taiwan, Hong Kong and Papua New Guinea. The concentration underscores the importance of Chinese demand to Vietnamese growers, packers and traders, while also exposing the sector to changes in market access and purchasing conditions in a single destination.

China was also Vietnam’s largest market for fruit and vegetables overall. Six-month exports to China reached $2 billion, an increase of 24.7%, and represented 55% of the sector’s total export revenue. Growth was mainly linked to demand for tropical fruit, particularly durian, dragon fruit, banana, fresh coconut and mango. An Ninh Thủ Đô also reported solid growth in sales to the United States, South Korea and the European Union, although it provided no values for those markets.

India adds a new outlet

Vietnam expects demand to recover further in China, the United States, the European Union, Japan and South Korea during the third quarter. Another potential source of growth is India, which officially opened its market to fresh Vietnamese durian on July 13, 2026, with more favorable quarantine requirements. The opening could give exporters another outlet and reduce some of the sector’s dependence on China, although the source did not provide a shipment forecast for India.

Continued third-quarter growth would support the industry’s target of approximately $9.5–10 billion in export revenue for all of 2026. That range would represent an increase of 11.8–17.6% from 2025. Reaching it will depend on maintaining harvest volumes, meeting destination-market requirements and converting access to additional markets into commercial shipments, while China remains the decisive buyer for the sector.