USDA sees Ukraine's sunflower crop back at 13 million tonnes in 2026/27, oilseed crush at 16.9 million
The US Department of Agriculture projects Ukraine's sunflower seed production recovering to 13 million tonnes in 2026/27 from 10.7 million tonnes, a gain of about 21.5%. Total oilseed crush in the country is forecast at 16.9 million tonnes, with domestic sunflower seed use at 12.775 million tonnes. World sunflower output is seen at 63.65 million tonnes against 55.17 million a season earlier.
Ukraine's sunflower seed crop is forecast to recover to 13 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, up from 10.7 million tonnes a season earlier, according to a US Department of Agriculture projection reported by fixygen.ua with reference to Open4business. The gain of about 21.5% would return output to the 2024/25 level, when Ukraine also harvested close to 13 million tonnes.
Recovery built on sown area, not yields
USDA links the rebound of the global sunflower market to an expansion of planted area after two seasons of comparatively low yields in the Black Sea region. Larger harvests in Ukraine and Russia are named as one of the main factors behind the projected growth in world sunflower oil trade.
For processors the operative number is the volume of raw material coming back to the market: an additional 2.3 million tonnes of seed compared with 2025/26. The figures come from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report published in September 2026.
Ukraine second in a 63.65 million tonne world crop
Ukraine keeps its position as the world's second-largest sunflower producer after Russia. USDA country forecasts for 2026/27 are:
- Russia — 21 million tonnes
- Ukraine — 13 million tonnes
- European Union — 9.725 million tonnes
- Argentina — 8 million tonnes
- Turkey — 1.825 million tonnes
The global crop is put at 63.65 million tonnes against 55.17 million tonnes in the previous season, an increase of 8.48 million tonnes, or roughly 15%. Russia and Ukraine together account for 34 million tonnes, more than half of world output, with Ukraine alone at about 20%.
The concentration of the increase in the Black Sea matters for buyers of sunflower oil, since the two countries set the pace of global trade in the product. Separate export figures for Ukraine are not given in the material cited, but USDA attributes the expected expansion of world sunflower oil trade to the recovery of Ukrainian and Russian supply.
Crush seen at 16.9 million tonnes
Domestic use of sunflower seed in Ukraine is estimated at 12.775 million tonnes, equal to about 98% of the projected crop. That leaves almost nothing for raw seed exports and points to processing plants working close to full load.
Total oilseed crush in Ukraine is forecast to rise to 16.9 million tonnes, fixygen.ua reported. Sunflower remains the dominant raw material, with soybeans and rapeseed making up the balance. A return to a 13 million tonne sunflower crop would allow plants to lift output of oil and meal and at the same time increase exports of higher value-added products instead of unprocessed seed.
The gap between the 16.9 million tonne crush forecast and the 12.775 million tonnes of sunflower seed used domestically, roughly 4.1 million tonnes, reflects the soybean and rapeseed volumes moving through Ukrainian plants.
What the forecast does not cover
The material cited does not disclose the area and yield assumptions behind the 13 million tonne figure, nor does it give price, export-volume or plant-level capacity data. Because forecast domestic use of 12.775 million tonnes sits just below the crop itself, any shortfall in the harvest would feed directly into crush volumes rather than being absorbed by a cut in seed exports.
The sequence of Ukrainian crops in the USDA data — about 13 million tonnes in 2024/25, 10.7 million tonnes in 2025/26 and 13 million tonnes projected for 2026/27 — shows the swing that processors and oil buyers have had to price in over three consecutive seasons.
