USDA Raises Vietnam's 2026 Rice Export Forecast to 8.1 Million Tons
The USDA has raised its forecast for Vietnam's 2026 rice exports to 8.1 million tons, up 200,000 tons from its previous estimate, citing stronger demand from China and the Philippines. Vietnam exported 5.2 million tons of rice in the first half of the year, up nearly 10% from a year earlier.
USDA Lifts Forecast on Firmer Demand
The US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for Vietnam's rice exports in 2026 to 8.1 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from its previous estimate, according to the agency's updated global rice market report. USDA attributed the upward revision to stronger demand from Vietnam's traditional buyers, particularly the Philippines and China.
China's Import Needs Climb
In its July update, USDA also raised its forecast for China's rice imports this year to 3.9 million tons, up 400,000 tons from the previous estimate. USDA said one driver behind the higher Chinese import demand is rice used as an ingredient in animal feed.
Philippines Holds Steady as Top Importer
USDA kept its forecast for Philippine rice imports unchanged this year at 5.6 million tons, which would mark a record high. The Philippines' Bureau of Plant Industry reported that the country imported 2.75 million tons of rice in the first half of the year, up 20% from the same period a year earlier. Vietnam remained the Philippines' main supplier, even as other origins have improved their share.
Vietnam's Exports Rise, but Market Mix Shifts
Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment reported that the country's rice exports reached 5.2 million tons in the first half of the year, up nearly 10% from the same period a year earlier. China was the second-largest market, with a 19.4% share and growth of 87%. The Philippines remained the largest buyer with a 45% share, though that was down 3.8 percentage points from the first half of 2025.
Rice exporters in the Mekong Delta said demand from China and the Philippines has slowed recently, while African countries are showing stronger interest. With supply tightening, export prices for Vietnamese rice, particularly fragrant and specialty varieties, have edged higher. At the current export pace, industry sources said total shipments are likely to exceed 8 million tons this year.
Vietnam exported a record 9.2 million tons of rice in 2024, worth $5.7 billion. In 2025, exports totaled 7.85 million tons, worth $4 billion.
