USDA raises Russia’s sunflower seed harvest forecast to 20.7 million tons

Sunflower crop estimate rises by 1.2 million tons

The US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for Russia’s sunflower seed harvest to 20.7 million tons, according to information reported by AKM and attributed to Agroexport. The new projection is 1.2 million tons above the department’s previous estimate. The revision points to a larger supply of sunflower seed available to Russian crushers and other buyers, although the report provides no details on planted area, yields or regional production.

The higher estimate is significant for processors because the volume of harvested seed determines how intensively crushing plants can operate and how much oil and meal can be produced. A larger crop can improve access to raw materials, but the source does not provide forecasts for Russian crushing volumes, sunflower meal output, domestic consumption or seed inventories. The balance between these uses will determine how much of the additional harvest ultimately reaches foreign markets in processed form.

Russia projected to export 5 million tons of sunflower oil

USDA experts expect Russia’s sunflower oil exports to reach 5 million tons in the 2026/27 season. On that forecast, Russia would become the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil. Ukraine’s exports are projected at 4.9 million tons, leaving a difference of 0.1 million tons between the two suppliers.

The narrow projected gap means that actual export leadership could depend on how much seed is processed, the pace of shipments and the availability of oil during the season. The source does not give destination markets, prices, freight costs or monthly export schedules. It also does not specify whether the forecasts could be affected by later crop revisions. For importers and traders, the central signal is therefore the expected availability of two large export programs from Russia and Ukraine rather than a guaranteed final ranking.

Rapeseed production estimated at 6.4 million tons

The USDA also increased its assessment of Russia’s rapeseed crop, AKM reported. Russian rapeseed production in 2026/27 is now expected to reach 6.4 million tons. No size of the rapeseed revision was disclosed, and the source did not provide corresponding forecasts for rapeseed exports, rapeseed oil production or overseas shipments of rapeseed oil.

Taken together, the sunflower and rapeseed estimates indicate a substantial oilseed supply for Russia’s processing sector in 2026/27. The clearest trade implication concerns sunflower oil, where the USDA explicitly projects exports of 5 million tons. Producers will focus on demand from crushers, while processors and exporters will monitor how the 20.7-million-ton sunflower harvest is allocated between domestic use, stocks and export-oriented processing. For international buyers, Russia’s projected lead over Ukraine is only 0.1 million tons, making execution across the season as important as the headline forecast.