USDA lifts Mexican sugar import estimate 512% to 1.15 million tonnes for 2026/27
The USDA now estimates the United States will import up to 1,152,000 tonnes of Mexican sugar in the 2026/27 cycle, a 512% jump over the prior estimate. Mexico's government says the increase follows bilateral talks and could add up to 4,760 million pesos in payments to cane growers.
USDA sharply raises Mexican sugar import estimate
The United States is set to substantially increase its purchases of Mexican sugar in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on 10 July 2026. The report estimates the United States will need to import up to 1,152,000 tonnes of Mexican sugar during the cycle, a volume 512% higher than the estimate for the 2025/26 cycle.
The Mexican Presidency described the revision as the start of a normalization of access for the national sugar industry and cane growers to the U.S. market. According to figures cited by outlets including El Mañana and Noventa Grados, the higher import volume could translate into up to 4,760 million pesos in additional payments from the sugar industry to Mexican cane producers in the coming season.
How the agreement came about
The Mexican government said the outcome followed a dialogue with U.S. authorities carried out on the instruction of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. According to El Mañana and Noventa Grados, the talks began in November of last year during a visit to Mexico by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, who met with President Sheinbaum.
Mexican authorities framed the result as evidence that bilateral dialogue can produce agreements benefiting agricultural producers and food consumers in both countries. The Presidency said the revised USDA estimate marks the beginning of the regularization of the Mexican sugar sector's access to the United States.
What it means for trade flows
For Mexican cane growers and mills, the revised estimate reopens a large and geographically close export market. The United States is a structural sugar importer, and Mexico has historically been one of its principal foreign suppliers under bilateral arrangements.
- Estimated import volume: up to 1,152,000 tonnes of Mexican sugar in 2026/27.
- Change versus prior cycle: an increase of 512% over the 2025/26 estimate.
- Potential additional grower income: up to 4,760 million pesos, according to Mexican outlets.
- Source of the figures: USDA's WASDE report dated 10 July 2026.
For U.S. refiners and food manufacturers, a larger allocation of Mexican sugar offers a nearer supply source than the world market. The scale of the revision underscores how quickly bilateral policy can reshape sugar trade between the two neighbours, though the volume remains an official estimate tied to the diplomatic understanding rather than a fixed commercial commitment.
