USDA Cuts India’s 2026-27 Corn and Rice Production Forecasts
USDA has reduced its forecasts for India’s 2026-27 corn and rice production as an erratic monsoon weakens crop prospects. Corn output is now projected at 50 million tonnes and rice at 147 million tonnes, while the wheat outlook remains comparatively strong.
Monsoon pressure lowers corn outlook
The US Department of Agriculture has cut its forecast for India’s 2026-27 corn production to 50 million tonnes from 52 million tonnes in August, Rural Voice reported, citing USDA’s September 2026 global production assessment. The new projection is about 9.2% below the previous year’s 55.09 million tonnes and reflects weaker crop prospects associated with an erratic monsoon.
USDA also reduced its estimate of India’s corn area to 14 million hectares from 14.41 million hectares in August. Yield is projected at 3.57 tonnes per hectare. The revision follows lower year-on-year planting of kharif corn, which is particularly exposed to rainfall conditions because the kharif season accounts for 75% of India’s corn crop.
The weaker outlook could tighten the volume available to India’s feed and processing industries, although the report does not provide forecasts for domestic consumption, stocks, trade or prices. The production downgrade is therefore not, by itself, a forecast of imports or export restrictions. It does indicate a smaller supply cushion for buyers if the crop develops in line with USDA’s estimate.
Rice production also revised lower
India’s 2026-27 rice production forecast was lowered to 147 million tonnes from 150 million tonnes in August. That would be 4.6% below the previous year’s 154.02 million tonnes. USDA projects a harvested area of 51 million hectares and yield of 4.32 tonnes per hectare.
The reduction is significant for the domestic balance and potential export availability because India is a major rice producer. However, the cited assessment gives no separate figures for Indian rice consumption, inventories or shipments. The eventual effect on exporters and overseas buyers will depend on those balances as well as harvest results and any government market measures.
The revision comes alongside a softer global rice outlook. USDA forecasts world production at 533.85 million tonnes, down 0.6% from its August estimate and 2.2% from the previous year. China’s crop is also projected at 147 million tonnes, equal to India’s forecast, although Chinese production is expected to rise slightly year on year. Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are all forecast to produce less rice than in the previous year.
Wheat and cotton provide a counterweight
USDA maintained India’s wheat production forecast at 121 million tonnes, about 2.6% above the previous year. Wheat area is projected at 33.5 million hectares and yield at 3.61 tonnes per hectare. This contrasts with projected global wheat production of 822.43 million tonnes, which Rural Voice said would be 2.55% lower year on year.
India’s oilseed forecast was reduced by 1.8% from the August estimate of 41.95 million tonnes to 41.2 million tonnes. Even after the revision, production would remain 1.1% above the previous year’s 40.74 million tonnes. USDA also kept India’s cotton forecast at 24 million bales, 0.84% above the previous year.
The September estimates consequently present a mixed agricultural picture. Weather risk is concentrated in corn and rice, while wheat and cotton remain comparatively firm and oilseed output is still expected to grow year on year. For producers, processors and traders, crop development and final yields will determine whether the lower corn and rice projections translate into tighter physical availability.
