US soybean exporters seek new markets as sales to China fall 45%
US soybean export commitments fell 18.5% year on year to 41.4 million tonnes as of July 16, driven by a 45% decline in Chinese purchases. Higher sales to Egypt and several Asian markets have recovered 3.3 million tonnes but cannot replace lost Chinese demand.
Chinese demand leaves a large export gap
US soybean exporters are accelerating sales to alternative destinations as reduced demand from China weighs on the final weeks of the 2025-2026 agricultural year. Market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, that total shipments remain substantially below the previous year's level, with only slightly more than a month left before the August-September close of the marketing cycle.
US Department of Agriculture data showed total US soybean export commitments at 41.4 million tonnes as of July 16, down 18.5% from the corresponding period a year earlier. China accounted for 12.4 million tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 45%. Assessments of world agricultural supply and demand published on July 10 indicated that exports had already reached the forecast level for the 2025-2026 agricultural year.
US traders said China had suspended purchases of American soybeans for almost five months from June 2025 amid bilateral trade tensions and instead favored Brazilian supplies. Purchases resumed in late October 2025 but remained limited. An additional 10% Chinese import tariff on US goods has further weakened the competitiveness of American soybeans against the Brazilian crop.
Egypt and Asian buyers absorb more volume
US exporters sold an additional 3.3 million tonnes to other countries as of July 16, according to the USDA. Traders told Platts that much of the increase was directed to Asian markets, including Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Pakistan and Bangladesh. They linked the expansion largely to trade agreements concluded with the United States, while acknowledging that these destinations cannot fully replace the scale of Chinese demand.
Japan booked 2.3 million tonnes of US soybeans for 2025-2026, up 10.2% year on year, after the United States announced on October 28, 2025 that Japan would purchase $8 billion of agricultural products, including soybeans. Indonesia raised its commitments by 19.8% to 2.4 million tonnes following a July 2025 trade agreement covering higher agricultural imports. Bangladesh, which agreed to buy $3.5 billion of US agricultural products, purchased 1.2 million tonnes of soybeans, an increase of 49%.
Egypt emerged as the largest named alternative outlet in the USDA figures, increasing purchases by 41.6% to 4.9 million tonnes. Traders attributed the growth to domestic demand for animal feed rather than a trade agreement. Pakistan raised commitments by 317.9% to 1.1 million tonnes after its plant protection authority lifted a ban on imports of genetically modified crops.
Larger crop raises the pressure for 2026-2027
Forward Chinese commitments for the 2026-2027 agricultural year stand at 2.4 million tonnes. US traders expressed little confidence that purchases would rise to 20 million tonnes in 2026, the level cited by US President Donald Trump in February after a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The USDA expects the US soybean harvest to reach 115.99 million tonnes in 2025-2026, down 2.6% year on year. Production is then forecast to rise 4.1% to 120.7 million tonnes in 2026-2027, while exports are projected at 45.18 million tonnes, up 9.2%. Meeting that export forecast will require sustained growth outside China or a significant recovery in Chinese buying. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans soybeans at $491.91 per tonne on July 27, 21.4% higher than a year earlier.
