Falling US demand cools Spain's olive oil market as Jaén stocks pile up
Monthly olive oil sales in Spain slipped to around 95,100 tonnes, below sector expectations, as ASAJA-Jaén links the slowdown to weaker Spanish olive oil consumption in the United States. Jaén's mills could end the campaign holding some 156,000 tonnes, about 40% of the oil available before the new harvest.
Spain's olive oil market is still moving large volumes, but the sector has begun to watch its sales figures with concern. According to data from the Food Information and Control Agency (AICA), cited by andaluciainformacion.es, oil removals reached around 95,100 tonnes over the last month. The figure remains positive but falls short of what the sector had expected.
US market blamed for the slowdown
The farming association ASAJA-Jaén attributes much of the softness to a loss of Spanish olive oil consumption in the United States. Its manager and spokesman, Luis Carlos Valero, argues that the market is starting to feel the effects of damage to the product's image in that country.
"This is the unequivocal sign that the market is suffering, above all because of the reputational harm done to us by the dispute with the US and the resulting drop in consumption of Spanish olive oil in that country," Valero said.
For importers and distributors, the message is that the United States — a major destination for Spanish oil — is no longer absorbing volumes at the pace the sector counted on, and that reputational factors, not only price, are shaping demand.
Production and stocks weigh on the balance
AICA's provisional data put accumulated production for the campaign at 1,298,503 tonnes. Total stored volume stands at 683,345 tonnes, split between mills (almazaras) with 419,283 tonnes, the packing industry with 258,237 tonnes, and the Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero with 5,825 tonnes.
Despite doubts over how the international market will evolve, the pace of commercialisation remains high. If removals hold at similar levels over the coming months, the carryover into the next campaign would land at around 400,000 tonnes — a substantial cushion of supply heading into the new harvest.
Jaén set to concentrate the surplus
In that scenario, the mills of Jaén would again play a decisive role. Forecasts point to the province storing around 156,000 tonnes at the close of September, roughly 40% of the oil available before the start of the new campaign. That concentration means the world's largest olive oil producing area would be holding a disproportionate share of unsold stock as the next crop approaches.
ASAJA also warns that August is typically a month of lower commercial activity. For that reason, the association considers that the evolution of sales during the end of summer will be decisive in determining the volume of stocks the sector carries into the next harvest.
What it means for the trade
- Monthly removals near 95,100 tonnes signal steady but underwhelming demand.
- A projected carryover near 400,000 tonnes points to comfortable availability and downward pressure on prices.
- Buyers exposed to Spanish origin should track US demand and the reputational dispute closely, as both are now shaping how quickly stocks clear.
