Ukrainian soybean prices face pressure from larger US and Brazilian crop forecasts
Ukrainian export indications reached $450 per tonne DAF and $490 per tonne CIF on 6 October 2026, while Chicago November futures stood at $471.8 per tonne. Larger crop forecasts in the United States and Brazil, weaker Chinese demand for US beans and Ukraine’s advancing harvest are limiting the prospect of an immediate price recovery.
Chicago prices retreat as supply outlook grows
Global soybean quotations are under pressure from expectations of large harvests in the United States and Brazil. According to the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine, StoneX raised its forecast for US soybean production to 126.5 million tonnes, compared with the USDA’s August estimate of 123.4 million tonnes. In Brazil, the 2026/27 crop is projected at 183.36 million tonnes, up from 180.5 million tonnes in the previous season.
The beginning of Brazil’s rainy season is creating favorable conditions for planting. At the same time, Chinese demand for US soybeans remains weak, and the absence of new agreements to increase US shipments to China has contributed to declining Chicago quotations. November soybean futures lost 2.6% over the latest week to $471.8 per tonne. The contract was down 2% over the month but remained 20% higher than a year earlier.
US processing data added to the bearish picture. American plants crushed 5.7 million tonnes of soybeans in August, 5.5% less than in July and below market expectations. The combination of a larger projected US harvest, favorable planting conditions in South America and lower US processing volumes could keep international prices under pressure.
Ukraine’s harvest adds near-term supply
Ukraine’s new-crop harvest was progressing actively at the end of September. Farmers had collected 1.215 million tonnes from 571,000 hectares, representing 36% of the projected area. Average yield stood at 2.13 tonnes per hectare. The arrival of this supply typically increases the volume offered by growers and makes the harvest period a difficult window for a sharp domestic price rise.
Exports nevertheless strengthened at the start of the season. The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club reported that September 2026 soybean shipments rose 24.3% from August to 36,200 tonnes. Total oilseed exports during the month reached 494,500 tonnes, with rapeseed accounting for the largest share. The European Union has become an increasingly important destination for Ukrainian soybeans, while domestic processors also buy the crop for soybean meal production.
Delivery terms define the Ukrainian price
As of 6 October 2026, Ukrainian purchase prices varied according to the delivery destination. The Electronic Grain Exchange said the average price fell by 165 hryvnias in one day, although the source did not provide the resulting average level. Export indications included $450 per tonne DAF, covering delivery to a specified border point, and $490 per tonne CIF, which includes the commodity, insurance and freight to the named destination port.
These quotations should not be treated as directly interchangeable with Chicago futures. The Ukrainian DAF and CIF levels incorporate different logistics and contractual obligations, while the futures price represents a standardized exchange contract. For growers, the relevant comparison is the net return after inland transport, border or port delivery costs and any quality requirements.
Stronger prices are therefore more likely after the peak harvest flow subsides or if export and processing demand accelerates. In the near term, however, expanding Ukrainian availability coincides with expectations of more soybeans from the United States and Brazil. A sustained recovery would require a change in one of the current fundamentals, such as stronger Chinese purchases of US soybeans, higher Ukrainian exports to the EU or increased demand from domestic crushers.
