Analyst: Poland's Ban on Ukrainian Rapeseed Shifts Trade to Oil, Not Away From It

Seed ban does not close the border to Ukrainian supply

Poland does not import rapeseed from Ukraine, but Ukrainian raw material can still reach the Polish market in processed form, as rapeseed oil. That was the central argument made by Miroslaw Marciniak, agricultural market analyst at InfoGrain, during the latest Stol Farmera discussion, reported by farmer.pl. In his assessment, the mechanism has direct consequences for domestic crushing and for demand for Polish-grown seed.

The restriction on seed imports, Marciniak said, does not cut the Polish market off from Ukrainian raw material at all. "Rapeseed goes there. What happens? We cannot buy rapeseed from Ukraine, but we can bring in rapeseed oil from Ukraine," he said, adding that the same works in the opposite direction.

Blocking oil imports from Ukraine directly would not settle the question either, because the product can reach Poland through third countries. If neighbours such as Germany have access to cheaper Ukrainian rapeseed, they will crush it and send rapeseed oil into Poland, the analyst said. He also named the Netherlands as a possible route for imported oil.

Biodiesel is the buyer that sets the tone

Marciniak identified biodiesel as the largest consumer of rapeseed oil in Poland. A company running a tender for rapeseed oil destined for fuel use will not limit its search, he said, and will look widely for the cheapest offers, which increasingly come from imports. That places Polish crushing plants in direct competition with foreign oil on price.

The consequence, according to the analyst, is pressure on the economics of domestic processing. "If our plants are not competitive, the crush of this rapeseed will fall," he said. "And a smaller crush means smaller demand for Polish rapeseed." Plants want access to raw material because they want to produce oil; if Poland imports more finished oil instead, that volume of crushing disappears.

Why the seed ban is unlikely to lift farmgate prices

Asked directly whether the situation could push rapeseed prices higher on the Polish market, Marciniak said prices would not hold, because what matters at the end of the day is the oil. He set out three components that determine the price of rapeseed in Poland:

• Matif quotations, which are global and outside Polish influence;
• the premium, the only genuinely local variable;
• the exchange rate, likewise beyond domestic control.

Last season Poland was one of the most expensive rapeseed markets in Europe, he said, with high premiums tied to limited availability of domestic seed. Poland had to import more rapeseed, and imported material is always more expensive, which left the country dearer than Germany. Marciniak also pointed to a reversal in trade with the German market: a few years ago Poland exported rapeseed to Germany, while today it imports more rapeseed from Germany than it ships there.

He recalled the very high rapeseed prices of 2022, when the crop briefly traded at 5,000 zlotys for one or two days. That level was possible because processors were obtaining very high prices for rapeseed oil and could pay farmers more while still generating a margin on the sale. Today, he said, a crusher will not be able to generate that margin on processing Polish seed.

The 130,000-tonne signal

Marciniak treats the scale of oil imports as the key indicator to watch. Imports of rapeseed oil last season were 130,000 tonnes higher than in the season before. "Until now we basically did not import oil," he said, arguing that the change shows Poland has become an attractive outlet for foreign supply.

The analyst does not rule out high rapeseed prices if exchange quotations and oil values move in producers' favour. If Matif helps and rapeseed oil prices are much higher, a farmer could receive as much as 3,000 zlotys for the crop, he said. But he stressed that the price of rapeseed is set in Europe and the Polish market cannot detach itself from those levels; if it is not competitive, imports will simply grow further.

The practical conclusion for producers, as summarised by farmer.pl, is that watching seed movements across the border is not enough. What matters for the domestic market is also how much finished oil arrives from abroad. If oil imports keep rising, domestic plants have less room to expand crushing, and a smaller crush reduces demand for domestically grown seed.