Ukraine could export 200,000 tonnes of sunflower seed as Turkey cuts tariff
Ukraine could export about 200,000 tonnes of new-crop sunflower seed in September-November, nearly five times last season’s volume. Earlier tariff relief in Turkey and a raw-material deficit at Bulgarian crushing plants are supporting demand, but logistics, duties and inspections could erode exporters’ margins.
Export potential rises sharply
Ukraine could export about 200,000 tonnes of new-crop sunflower seed between September and November, according to Sunstone Brokers co-founder Serhiy Repetskyi. He estimates that roughly 120,000 tonnes could go to Turkey, with another 80,000 tonnes destined for Bulgaria and Romania. The projected volume compares with only 42,000 tonnes exported during the previous season, which ended on 31 August.
Trading activity has already accelerated. Latifundist.com reported that traders contracted about 30,000 tonnes for Turkey and Bulgaria in a single week in August. APK-Inform also recorded active export demand at Ukrainian ports, primarily for onward shipment to Bulgaria and Romania.
The buying interest follows weaker domestic prices in Ukraine. Difficulties exporting sunflower oil and more expensive logistics prompted major processors to reduce seed purchase offers to $400–450 per tonne. That made Ukrainian raw material more attractive to nearby crushing markets, while potentially giving farmers an alternative to domestic plants.
Turkey brings tariff relief forward
Turkey normally protects its domestic market during harvesting with a 20% sunflower seed import duty. The rate was due to fall to 12% from 30 November, but the Ministry of Trade moved the reduction forward to 1 October, citing supply risks linked to events in the Black Sea region and drought in Europe. From 11 January to 31 May 2027, Turkey will also open a zero-duty import quota for 1.25 million tonnes of sunflower seed.
The earlier reduction could help Turkish crushers secure stocks, but it has drawn opposition from domestic growers. Tekirdag lawmaker Ilhami Ozcan Aygun said cheaper imports arriving before the harvest ends could reduce farmers’ income by 4,000–5,000 liras per tonne.
Export premium faces logistical risks
An unnamed Ukrainian agricultural holding assessed a shipment to Turkey at $680 per tonne CIF Marmara. After allowing up to $100 per tonne for freight, customs and other logistics, the calculation produced $580 per tonne FOB. Ukraine’s 10% export duty removed another $58 per tonne and transshipment about $15, leaving around $507 per tonne at a Danube port, or approximately 25,800 hryvnias per tonne including VAT at an exchange rate of 44.7 hryvnias per dollar.
Transport from the company’s farms to Danube ports would have cost about 2,000 hryvnias per tonne, reducing the farm-level price to 23,800 hryvnias. Although the paper premium over a domestic sale was $60–70 per tonne, pesticide testing in Bulgaria could add $10–15 per tonne. Truck delays, queues, higher freight and vessel demurrage of $2,000–5,000 per day could eliminate the advantage. The company ultimately sold its seed to a Ukrainian processor.
Bulgaria needs additional feedstock
Bulgaria expects a sunflower crop of about 2.1 million tonnes, but its oilseed processing capacity reaches approximately 4 million tonnes annually, Bulgarian trader Preslav Raykov told Latifundist.com. Plants therefore require imported feedstock, although some processors find it more profitable to import crude Ukrainian sunflower oil for refining and bottling. Offers and contracted seed volumes from Ukraine exist, mainly for road delivery, but stricter pesticide checks may delay or prevent shipments. Expectations of additional Ukrainian supply have already affected the regional market: AGRIColumn founder Cezar Gheorghe said sunflower prices fell by at least $10 per tonne, including a decline in Constanta from about $595 to $585 per tonne.
