Ukraine sugar output forecast cut as beet losses and port disruption tighten supply outlook

Weather losses reduce the production outlook

Ukraine is heading into a tighter sugar season after adverse weather damaged sugar beet fields and delayed crop development. Yana Kavushevska, head of the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine, Ukrsakhar, told UNIAN that the country cannot repeat last season’s record harvest. The harvesting campaign is expected to begin about two weeks later than usual because of frosts during planting, while August remains critical for final beet yields and quality.

Farmers planted 162,000 hectares of sugar beet, but only 159,000 hectares remained by August after 3,000 hectares were lost to weather. Some fields were washed out and others suffered wind damage. Ukrsakhar’s preliminary sugar production forecast was 1.2 million tonnes, but Kavushevska expects it to be lowered by 100,000-200,000 tonnes. She said neither crop quality nor yield is likely to reach last season’s records.

Export capacity narrows as ports close

Ukraine’s domestic sugar consumption is estimated at 800,000-900,000 tonnes. On the revised production outlook, Ukrsakhar expects enough supply to cover the domestic market and leave 200,000-300,000 tonnes for export. The association sees a broadly balanced market, unlike the previous two seasons, when Ukraine produced roughly twice as much sugar as it consumed and had to find foreign buyers for a large surplus.

The European Union was Ukraine’s leading export destination during the first 11 months of the 2025-2026 sugar marketing year, receiving about 19% of shipments across its 27 member states. Uzbekistan and Lebanon ranked second and third, followed by Syria. Ukraine had already exported 622,000 tonnes as of August 7, compared with about 580,000 tonnes in the previous year, according to figures cited by Kavushevska.

Port closures now threaten deliveries to Uzbekistan, Lebanon and Syria, leaving exporters more dependent on overland routes. Moving sugar by rail to Constanța and then transferring it into containers is currently too expensive, Kavushevska said. The additional logistics cost is estimated at around $50 per tonne, a substantial burden when sugar is priced at about $400 per tonne. Uzbekistan had emerged as a major buyer after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz prevented sugar from the United Arab Emirates from reaching customers in Central Asia.

EU demand and costs may support prices

Ukraine currently has an EU sugar quota of 100,000 tonnes. Ukrsakhar believes the country could supply a doubled quota of 200,000 tonnes without damaging domestic availability. Western Balkan markets are also important because they can be served by land. If ports remain constrained, available export sugar will probably move to Europe, where Kavushevska expects the best prices amid forecasts of lower regional beet production.

The global price effect is less certain. Brazil, India and Thailand remain the principal forces in the world sugar market, although Kavushevska noted that Brazil and India are also facing unfavorable conditions linked to El Niño. Ukraine’s ability to return to traditional maritime markets will depend on whether global prices can absorb the extra cost of routing cargo through Constanța.

Domestic wholesale sugar is currently priced at 22.60 hryvnias per kilogram, around its 2022 level after two years of declining prices and surplus supply. Ukrsakhar estimates production costs at 30 hryvnias per kilogram and says producers need prices of 32-35 hryvnias per kilogram to achieve minimal profitability. Fuel and labor costs have increased, while uncertainty over diesel prices forces producers to update budgets almost weekly. Kavushevska warned that a third consecutive loss-making season could discourage even the largest farmers from planting sugar beet, making higher prices important for preserving future production capacity.