Ukraine raises grain outlook as Russian wheat prices fall and Poland’s harvest accelerates

Black Sea attacks produce only temporary price spikes

Attacks on Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea infrastructure continue to move wheat futures, but they have not produced a sustained price increase. Top Agrar reports that ports in the two countries handle 45% of global wheat export loadings. Strikes therefore tend to lift MATIF quotations, while quieter trading days bring renewed declines.

Physical exports are increasingly being shaped by the larger volumes becoming available from the 2026 harvest. Ukraine’s expected crop has improved, Russian port prices have fallen and harvesting has accelerated across much of Poland. These supply signals are offsetting part of the risk premium associated with repeated attacks on ports and vessels.

Ukraine raises production and export forecasts

The Ukrainian Grain Association raised its 2026 forecast for the country’s grain and oilseed harvest by 1 million tonnes to 84.6 million tonnes. It attributed the revision to favorable weather and adequate soil moisture, which produced better-than-expected yields in regions harvested earlier.

UGA estimates that Ukraine could export almost 52 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, compared with 41 million tonnes in the previous marketing year. That outcome depends on a full restoration of maritime operations in the Greater Odesa area, where Russian attacks continue to disrupt port infrastructure and ships calling at Ukrainian terminals.

Ukraine’s wheat harvest is forecast at 23.7 million tonnes, with export potential of 18 million tonnes, 4 million tonnes more than a year earlier. Barley production is projected at 5.5 million tonnes and exports at 2.3 million tonnes. UGA also expects a corn crop of 32.1 million tonnes, of which as much as 27 million tonnes could be exported.

Shipments are already running ahead of last year despite logistical restrictions. By the end of July, Ukraine had exported 2.6 million tonnes of grain and pulses, against 1.68 million tonnes at the same point a year earlier. Wheat exports reached 1 million tonnes, up by 250,000 tonnes; barley shipments rose by 27,000 tonnes to 294,000 tonnes, while corn exports of 1.24 million tonnes were almost half again as large as a year earlier.

Russian offers weaken as exports slow

Russian wheat prices initially stabilized at $235 per tonne FOB following the first stage of the latest escalation. A week later, IKAR assessed 12.5% protein wheat for early-September delivery at $226 per tonne, down $9 in a week. SovEcon placed the price at $228–230 per tonne. Rising freight costs were cited in Russia as a reason for lower port prices.

According to the Russian Grain Union, Russia exported 1.8 million tonnes of wheat in July, down from almost 2.2 million tonnes in July 2025. Delayed harvesting and conditions in the Azov and Black seas weighed on shipments. Russian exporters plan to ship 3–3.5 million tonnes in August.

Polish harvest advances, but regional differences remain

Warm, sunny weather sharply accelerated harvesting in Poland, although yields range from 3–4 tonnes per hectare to 6–8 tonnes, with some reports of 10 tonnes. More than 90% had been harvested in Opole and Silesia, 80% in Lower Silesia, up to 90% in Lubusz and 95% in Greater Poland. Progress was much slower in the north, including about 20–30% in Masuria and roughly 20% in parts of Pomerania.

September MATIF wheat settled at €219.75 per tonne on August 6, €10 below the previous week, while December wheat stood at €228.25. In Poland, milling wheat averaged 823 zł per tonne after falling 6 zł over 14 days, with bids of 770–870 zł. Feed wheat averaged 772 zł. Corn recorded the strongest two-week gain, rising 13 zł to 844 zł per tonne, supported by traders fulfilling port contracts and demand from processors.