Ukraine forecasts 12.5 million tonne potato crop as prices fall 15% in a month
Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food expects a 2026 potato crop of about 12.5 million tonnes, far above domestic food consumption of 2-2.5 million tonnes a year. Average selling prices have fallen 15% over the past month to around 14 hryvnias per kilogram, with regional purchase prices as low as 12 hryvnias. Commercial output comes from roughly 400 enterprises working some 60,000 hectares.
Ministry puts the 2026 crop at 12.5 million tonnes
Ukraine will produce roughly 12.5 million tonnes of potatoes in 2026, a volume that covers domestic requirements several times over and rules out a shortage on the internal market, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi said. The forecast was released by the ministry's press service and reported by mezha.net and minfin.com.ua.
The gross harvest is expected to come in below last year's level, but the ministry stresses that the gap between output and demand remains wide. Ukrainian households consume a maximum of 2-2.5 million tonnes of potatoes a year. The rest of the crop is traditionally used as seed material and as feed in livestock production, which means the food segment of the balance accounts for only about a fifth of expected output.
“The available volume is more than enough for the domestic market,” Vysotskyi said in comments cited by minfin.com.ua.
Prices down 5% in a week and 15% in a month
Ample supply is already visible in price data. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the average selling price of potatoes stands at about 14 hryvnias per kilogram. Over the past week the crop lost around 5% in value, and over the past month prices fell 15%. In some regions purchase prices have dropped to 12 hryvnias per kilogram. Both mezha.net and minfin.com.ua link the decline directly to the size of the expected harvest rather than to weakening demand.
- Expected 2026 output: about 12.5 million tonnes, below the 2025 level
- Annual household consumption: 2-2.5 million tonnes
- Average selling price: about 14 hryvnias per kilogram, down 15% in a month, with 12 hryvnias reported in some regions
About 400 commercial growers on 60,000 hectares
Potatoes are grown as a marketable crop in Ukraine by around 400 specialised enterprises, with industrial planting area of approximately 60,000 hectares, according to the ministry data cited by both publications. A significant share of the national crop, however, still comes from households that grow potatoes primarily for their own consumption. That structure keeps a large part of the physical balance outside commercial trading channels and limits how much of the headline volume ever reaches organised wholesale markets.
For the commercial segment, the current price level sets the economics of the season. Selling into the field at 12-14 hryvnias per kilogram during the peak of the harvesting campaign is the weakest point of the annual price curve, and growers with storage capacity have the option of holding volumes rather than accepting spot bids. Producers without storage are exposed to the full extent of the seasonal decline reported by the State Statistics Service.
The ministry plans to establish the final results of the season only after the harvesting campaign is completed, and mezha.net notes that definitive figures are still ahead. Even at a lower gross harvest than in 2025, the volumes available are expected to cover Ukraine's domestic needs. As minfin.com.ua concluded, the country will retain a significant potato surplus despite the weaker forecast, and the current price trend confirms the absence of any deficit on the market.
