Ukrainian milk prices rose 10.58% in September as raw supply tightened

Milk leads September dairy inflation

Milk prices in Ukraine rose by an average of 10.58% in September 2026 compared with August, according to data from the Ministry of Finance cited by ua.news and znaj.ua. The broader consumer price index for dairy products increased by 2.8%, indicating that the sharp movement in milk was only partly reflected across the wider category.

Price changes varied significantly by product. Cottage cheese rose by 5.1%, while butter became 1.37% more expensive. Kefir moved in the opposite direction, declining by 2.02%. The publications also reported a notable increase in drinking milk prices, although they did not provide a separate percentage for that product. The mixed performance suggests that processors and retailers have not passed higher costs through evenly across the dairy shelf.

Raw milk costs rise as supply and logistics tighten

As of September 20, the weighted average purchase price for raw milk had reached UAH 15.40 per kilogram excluding value-added tax. That was UAH 0.65 per kilogram above the August level but still 10% below the price recorded in September of the previous year. The comparison shows that the latest monthly increase is significant without yet restoring raw milk prices to their year-earlier level.

The Association of Milk Producers attributed the rise to several factors. Active export demand is competing for available supply, while higher global prices for butter and milk powder are supporting domestic quotations. At the same time, the volume of raw milk available to processors has declined. Russian attacks have also destroyed distribution centers used by retail chains, complicating logistics and raising costs for dairy processors. These pressures affect collection, processing and delivery rather than only the farm-gate price.

Further increases forecast through year-end

Industry forecasts point to additional gains in raw milk prices. The purchase price could reach UAH 16–16.50 per kilogram in October. By the end of the year, large lots of extra-grade milk could cost UAH 17–17.50 per kilogram. At the lower end of that forecast, the year-end price would be UAH 1.60 above the September 20 weighted average; at the upper end, the difference would be UAH 2.10.

Retail dairy prices could rise by a further 20–25% by year-end as production, processing and logistics costs increase, according to forecasts cited by ua.news, znaj.ua and Mind. The outcome will depend on how much of the raw-material and distribution burden processors and retailers pass to consumers. Higher export demand gives Ukrainian producers another sales channel, but it also intensifies competition for milk inside the country. Processors face tighter margins if retail prices lag behind their input costs, while consumers may respond by switching between dairy categories, particularly when products such as kefir are moving against the broader inflation trend.