Ukraine’s farm exports fall nearly 40% as Black Sea ports lose capacity

Export volumes fall to just over 41 million tonnes

Ukraine closed the 2025/26 marketing season with exports of just over 41 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, nearly 40% below the 2023/24 result, according to Delo.ua. Export revenue declined more slowly than physical shipments: customs data put the value at $10 billion, down 10.7% from $11.2 billion one season earlier. Higher world grain prices partly offset the loss of volume.

Wheat exports fell to 14 million tonnes from 15.6 million tonnes, while barley shipments dropped to 1.5 million tonnes from 2.3 million tonnes. Corn remained the largest flow and was broadly stable at 21.2 million tonnes. Oilseed exports also weakened: rapeseed declined to 1.9 million tonnes from 3.1 million tonnes and soybean shipments fell to 2.7 million tonnes from 3.4 million tonnes.

Delo.ua linked the contraction primarily to a smaller harvest caused by adverse weather. Ukraine produced 57.6 million tonnes of grain and 17.3 million tonnes of oilseeds. Export duties and administrative restrictions also affected oilseed trade, while attacks on ports and railways added logistical pressure.

Black Sea bottleneck threatens the next crop cycle

Reuters reported that Ukraine has lost about one-third of its grain export capacity through its key Black Sea ports after intensified Russian missile and drone attacks. More than 90% of Ukrainian agricultural exports, including grain and vegetable oils, are shipped through three ports in the Odesa region. The country can normally load about 4 million tonnes of grain per month, according to the trade department of the Ukrainian Agrarian Association.

The ports continue to operate, but four of 13 large grain terminals have suspended purchases. Kernel-Trade, Ukraine’s largest grain exporter, halted operations at the port of Chornomorsk following a series of attacks. Ukrainian Railways data showed that grain wagons heading to Odesa ports fell 11% during July 2-8 from the previous week, while exports declined 17%.

Industry sources told Reuters that traders face disruption across purchasing, sales, loading, cargo accumulation, pricing and freight. ASAP Agri said shipowners’ reluctance to call at Ukrainian ports is pushing freight rates higher. If attacks continue and repairs are not completed, agricultural groups warn that infrastructure damage could become substantial within several months.

Wheat trade shifts from Europe toward Africa and Asia

Ukraine’s wheat shipments to the European Union fell to 1.08 million tonnes from 4.7 million tonnes, while barley exports to the bloc dropped to 66,000 tonnes from 411,000 tonnes. Quantitative restrictions on some Ukrainian farm products remain in force in several European countries.

Africa absorbed more of the available wheat. Shipments to the continent rose by 2 million tonnes to 7.3 million tonnes, while deliveries to Yemen nearly doubled to 1 million tonnes. Wheat exports to Indonesia increased by half to 2 million tonnes. These changes make African and Asian buyers more exposed to freight costs and operational interruptions in the Odesa ports.

Global supply is ample, but Ukrainian execution remains uncertain

Ukraine accounted for about 6% of global wheat exports and 11% of global corn exports in recent seasons, meaning prolonged port disruption could still affect international prices and availability. The FAO forecasts a 2026 global grain harvest of 2,983 million tonnes, including 806.5 million tonnes of wheat, only 1.9% below the 2025 record.

The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts a 2026 grain and oilseed harvest of 83.6 million tonnes and export potential of 50.8 million tonnes in 2026/27. That includes possible exports of 17 million tonnes of wheat, 2.2 million tonnes of barley and 27 million tonnes of corn. Reaching those volumes will depend heavily on port security, repairs and the willingness of shipowners to accept Black Sea risk.