Ukrainian apple growers expect wholesale prices to weaken in early 2027
A survey of Ukraine’s apple market points to cautious expectations for wholesale prices from January to May 2027. Among respondents offering a specific forecast, 43% expect prices to fall, with a decline of 11–20% the most common scenario.
Survey points to lower wholesale prices
Participants in Ukraine’s apple market are cautiously preparing for weaker wholesale prices for fresh apples between January and May 2027, according to a market survey reported by Gazeta.ua and attributed to EastFruit. Among respondents who provided a specific forecast, 43% expect prices to decline, 29% anticipate an increase and another 29% expect no significant change.
The most frequently selected scenario was a price decline of 11–20%, chosen by 25% of participants. A further 14% forecast a drop of more than 21%. The results do not represent a uniform market view, but the balance of responses indicates that downside expectations are more widespread than forecasts of either growth or stability.
An unusual seasonal price pattern
Andriy Yarmak, an economist with the investment department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said apple prices in the current season began falling unexpectedly for Ukrainian producers during the second half of the season. The decline continued from January through June, a pattern he described as highly unusual.
Apples sold during the harvest period for at least 25% more than fruit marketed after extended storage. That reversal is particularly relevant for growers and storage operators because holding fruit normally aims to capture stronger prices later in the marketing season. In the current cycle, prolonged storage instead coincided with a lower selling price.
Larger supply and export costs add pressure
Preliminary estimates indicate that Ukraine’s apple harvest will increase substantially in 2026, Yarmak said. Additional pressure could come from rapidly rising costs for exports by sea and larger apple crops in Moldova and Turkey. Together, these factors could increase available supply while making access to some foreign markets more expensive.
EastFruit experts nevertheless see potential demand in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Apple harvests are expected to decline noticeably in Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, creating a possible outlet for part of the excess supply. The commercial effect will depend on whether Ukrainian sellers can reach those markets at costs that remain workable despite the increase in maritime export expenses.
Harvest-time sales could change the outcome
Market participants have also outlined an alternative scenario. If producers sell apples aggressively during the harvest, less fruit may remain in storage for the second half of the season. Under that outcome, wholesale prices from January through June 2027 may not fall below the levels recorded in the corresponding period of the current year.
The timing of sales will therefore be central to price formation. Growers face a choice between selling into a potentially well-supplied harvest market and paying to store fruit for a period in which the survey already shows substantial expectations of lower prices. Storage businesses, traders and exporters will also need to assess crop volumes in neighboring producing countries and demand from Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The survey presents a cautious outlook rather than a settled price forecast. A larger Ukrainian harvest and increased production in Moldova and Turkey support the case for lower prices, while reduced crops in several Central Asian and Caucasus markets could absorb some supply. The scale and speed of sales during the 2026 harvest may ultimately determine which scenario prevails in early 2027.
