Ukraine Lines Up 200,000 Tonnes of New-Crop Sunflower Seed Exports

Regional buyers secure new-crop supply

Ukrainian sunflower seed exports are expected to accelerate at the beginning of the 2026/27 season as traders secure new-crop volumes for markets around the Black Sea. Contracts for approximately 30,000 tonnes destined for Turkey and Bulgaria were concluded in the latest reported week, according to Serghei Repețki, co-founder and partner at Sunstone Brokers, as cited by Latifundist.com.

Repețki estimates that Ukraine could export about 200,000 tonnes between September and November. Turkey is expected to purchase approximately 120,000 tonnes, while a combined 80,000 tonnes could go to Bulgaria and Romania. The pace of shipments is then expected to slow significantly after November.

Turkey leads demand at higher prices

Turkey is the main source of early demand. Sunflower seed for the Turkish market is being contracted at $655-$660 per tonne CIF Marmara. Cargoes for Bulgaria are priced at approximately $575 per tonne for delivery to Varna. The difference between the two indications underlines the strength of Turkish buying and the value of access to the Marmara market.

Turkish importers had already purchased approximately 150,000 tonnes of sunflower seed from several origins in August. Further Ukrainian supply would enter a market where buyers are actively securing raw material for crushing. Bulgarian and Romanian processors are competing for the remaining regional volumes, making the execution and timing of Ukrainian contracts relevant to crushing margins across the Black Sea region.

Forecasts diverge sharply

The projected three-month volume represents a major increase from the previous season. Ukraine exported only about 39,000 tonnes of sunflower seed between September 2025 and June 2026, while approximately 9.66 million tonnes went into domestic processing. The potential 200,000-tonne flow in the first three months of 2026/27 would therefore be more than five times the volume exported during the first ten months of the preceding season.

The estimates do not fully align. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Ukrainian sunflower seed exports of approximately 100,000 tonnes for the entire 2026/27 season, up from 40,000 tonnes in the previous season. The market estimate reported by Latifundist.com is twice the USDA’s full-season figure, highlighting uncertainty over how many contracts will ultimately be shipped rather than merely signed.

Black Sea shipping remains the main constraint

Maritime logistics could determine whether the expected export surge materializes. Repețki said several relatively new coaster vessels are being withdrawn from the Black Sea and redirected to northern European ports because of continuing military risks. Older vessels with low residual values may consequently handle a larger share of regional shipments.

Shipowners operating in the higher-risk environment can charge more for Black Sea voyages. That raises execution costs and could erode the price advantage available to Ukrainian sellers or the crushing margin of buyers. For Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, the key issue is therefore not only access to Ukrainian seed but whether contracted cargoes can be moved on schedule. For Ukrainian processors, stronger exports also mean greater competition for a crop that has traditionally been directed overwhelmingly into domestic crushing.