UBS raises copper price forecast as 2026 supply deficit widens

Price target rises to $15,000 per tonne

UBS has raised its copper price forecasts by $500 per metric tonne across all forecast periods, reinforcing its bullish view of the globally traded industrial metal. Investing.com reported that the investment bank now expects copper to reach $15,000 per metric tonne by the end of March 2027 and continues to recommend that clients maintain long positions.

The revised call rests on UBS’s latest assessment of copper supply and demand. The bank expects prices to increase year on year, although it remains cautious about the immediate outlook. Recent upward momentum has stalled, and UBS anticipates a period of price consolidation as high quotations persist through 2026 and seasonal weakness around the Chinese Lunar New Year weighs on activity.

UBS sees a wider deficit in 2026

UBS slightly reduced its estimate for the 2025 market shortfall to about 200,000 metric tonnes, from an earlier projection of 230,000 metric tonnes. The change implies a somewhat better supply balance for 2025 than previously expected, but it does not alter the bank’s broader view that available copper will remain insufficient.

The adjustment for 2026 moved in the opposite direction. UBS increased its projected deficit to 520,000 metric tonnes from 407,000 metric tonnes. That 113,000-tonne revision is central to the bank’s stronger price outlook: a larger gap between supply and demand would leave buyers competing for a more limited volume of metal and could progressively tighten physical availability.

For importers and industrial consumers, the forecast points to sustained procurement costs rather than a rapid return to cheaper copper. Companies exposed to spot purchases may face greater price risk if the projected deficit develops, while buyers with long-term supply arrangements will still need to monitor premiums and contract terms. Exporters and producers, by contrast, would benefit from firm benchmark prices, provided they can maintain output and delivery volumes.

Near-term consolidation does not change the bullish case

UBS’s recommendation to retain long positions does not mean prices will rise without interruption. The bank explicitly expects consolidation in the near term, with seasonal Chinese activity and already elevated prices limiting momentum. For traders, this creates a distinction between short-term price direction and the tighter balance projected for 2026 and 2027.

The key test will be whether the physical market develops in line with UBS’s revised figures. A deficit of 520,000 metric tonnes would strengthen sellers’ negotiating position and increase the importance of inventories, delivery schedules and regional premiums. If supply proves stronger or demand weaker than expected, the deficit could narrow and reduce support for the $15,000 target.

For global trade participants, UBS’s forecast makes supply data more consequential than short-lived price movements. Importers will be watching Chinese purchasing activity and the availability of refined metal, while exporters will assess whether high prices begin to restrain consumption. The bank’s central message remains that temporary consolidation is compatible with a rising annual price trend when the underlying market is expected to remain in deficit.