Turkish coal buyers face Russian supply shortage as Black Sea risks lift costs
Russian thermal coal availability is tightening in Turkey after exporters sold available June and July volumes into more profitable markets. Prices for 6,000 kcal/kg coal rose 3.6% to $107 per tonne CIF, while costlier alternative routes offer limited replacement capacity.
Turkish buyers return to a tighter market
Turkish importers are encountering a shortage of Russian thermal coal as they return to the market to replenish inventories. Russian exporters sold their available June and July volumes into more profitable destinations, leaving less material for Turkey, according to Kommersant, citing a NEFT Research review.
The price of Russian thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg rose 3.6% in the week to July 17, reaching $107 per tonne on a CIF basis, including insurance and freight. Turkey is the largest buyer of Russian coal on Russia’s western export routes, with cement plants and power generators among the main consumers.
The tightening follows a period of strong trade growth. Russian coal exports to Turkey increased 34.6% in 2025 to about 35 million tonnes. Kommersant also reported that Turkey imported 15.7 million tonnes from Russia in the first half of 2025, up 41% from the same period a year earlier.
Black Sea disruption raises freight exposure
Security risks in the Black Sea are compounding the shortage. Turkish media and a shipowner reported that a dry bulk carrier transporting coal from the Russian port of Taman to Trabzon was attacked on July 22. The incident has added uncertainty around voyages and contracts using the Azov-Black Sea basin.
Alternative supply routes are available but materially more expensive. Coal can move by rail through Azerbaijan and Georgia or by sea from Ust-Luga in the Baltic through the Mediterranean. Lenta.ru reported that both routes currently handle only minimal volumes.
Freight from Ust-Luga to Turkey increased 1.9% in a week to $26.4 per tonne, while coal at Baltic ports rose 2.7% to $76.1 per tonne. By comparison, the price at Taman increased 0.5% to $84.5 per tonne. NEFT Research estimates that redirecting cargoes to the Baltic raises logistics costs by 15–25%. Nariman Taiketaev, director of the corporate ratings group at NKR, told Lenta.ru that profitability through Ust-Luga is $15–30 per tonne lower than through Black Sea ports.
Shortfall could reach 1.5 million tonnes
Pavel Gamov, a mining and metals expert at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, estimates that Turkish buyers may lack as much as 1.5 million tonnes over the next two to three months because Russian exporters sold out their June and July volumes. He expects July Black Sea shipments to fall 25–35% year on year and 15–25% from the previous month.
A broader NEFT Research estimate places the potential shortage at 0.8–1.5 million tonnes in the coming months. If shipments from the Azov-Black Sea basin were suspended in the second half of the year, losses could reach 10–12 million tonnes. Baltic infrastructure would be unable to redirect the entire volume.
Some coal could instead be sent toward Russia’s Far East if railway capacity permits. That would further reduce availability for Turkish buyers. Russia produced 212 million tonnes of coal in the first half of the year, 2% less than a year earlier, adding a modest supply constraint as Turkish cement and power companies compete for replacement cargoes.