World Bank data show cereal prices rising again, exposing Tunisia's wheat import dependence

International prices for the main cereals have turned higher again, according to the latest World Bank food security update published on 28 September 2026, with data current as of 16 September 2026. The increase has been under way since June and is being watched closely in Tunisia, where imports still cover more than half of domestic wheat supply.

The World Bank describes global food markets as broadly well supplied. It links the rebound in cereal quotations to tighter production conditions and higher fertiliser costs rather than to a shortage of grain, in the account reported by L'Economiste Maghrebin.

Black Sea disruption drives the move

Reuters reported on 23 September that disruptions to wheat shipments from Russia and Ukraine had contributed to a sharp advance in world prices, with Chicago wheat futures up 40% from their June lows. For Tunisia the direction of those quotations feeds straight into the cost of its supply programme, because Russia and Ukraine have been among its main wheat suppliers.

A strong 2026 harvest limits the import need

In its latest assessment of food security in Tunisia, published in August 2026, FAO puts wheat import requirements at about 1.8 million tonnes for the 2026/2027 marketing year, 8% below the average of the past five years. Tunisian cereal production in 2026 is estimated at around 1.8 million tonnes, nearly 20% above the five-year average, helped in particular by favourable rainfall from December 2025 onward. Even with that improvement, imports are still expected to account for more than half of local wheat supply.

National data point the same way. Cereal collection for the 2025-2026 campaign reached about 11 million quintals, of which 8.1 million quintals were durum wheat, according to figures released in September by the Office des Céréales.

• Wheat import requirement for 2026/2027: about 1.8 million tonnes, 8% below the five-year average, per FAO
• Tunisian cereal production in 2026: about 1.8 million tonnes, nearly 20% above the five-year average, per FAO
• 2025-2026 collection: about 11 million quintals, including 8.1 million quintals of durum wheat, per the Office des Céréales
• 2024 imports of soft wheat, common wheat and meslin: about 1.59 million tonnes worth $417.1 million, per trade data compiled by the World Bank

The 2024 import bill and the tender channel

In 2024 Tunisia imported about 1.59 million tonnes of soft wheat, common wheat and meslin for a value of $417.1 million, based on international trade data compiled by the World Bank. Ukraine and Russia were among the leading suppliers that year, which ties the country's procurement costs directly to conditions in the Black Sea market.

Purchasing is centralised. The Office des Céréales holds the monopoly on imports of durum and soft wheat, buys through tenders and intervenes in supplying the domestic market. World price movements therefore pass first through public procurement rather than through commercial importers.

Pass-through to consumers is not direct

FAO data show Tunisian food inflation slowing to 6.6% in July 2026 from 8.2% in April and May. The main pressures at that point came from meat and fresh fruit, while cooking oil and egg prices were lower year on year.

The current rise in international quotations therefore does not translate automatically into an equivalent increase in the price of bread, flour or semolina in Tunisia. It is above all a potential risk to the cost of cereal procurement, particularly if international tensions persist. The 2026 harvest is a mitigating factor, and FAO expects import volumes for 2026/2027 to remain below their historical average. But for a country that must still buy more than half of its wheat abroad, a sustained climb in world prices can quickly add pressure to the import bill, to the financing needs of the supply system and to the wider food balance.