Tunisia’s dairy sector faces herd decline, drought and rising production costs
Tunisia’s cattle herd fell by about 26% between 2013 and 2025 as drought, expensive feed and weak farm economics weighed on milk production. Industry proposals include an early-warning index, water-efficient farms and a national development strategy through 2030.
A former self-sufficiency model comes under pressure
Tunisia’s dairy industry is confronting a sustained decline in its production base after repeated droughts, rising input costs and limited access to credit weakened the economics of cattle farming. The sector produces more than 1.4 billion litres of milk annually and supports nearly 100,000 livestock farmers, dozens of dairy plants and a broad distribution network. It has previously demonstrated the capacity to achieve national self-sufficiency, but its ability to maintain that position is increasingly uncertain.
Figures cited in a report carried by AllAfrica show that the number of dairy cows fell from 458,000 in 2013 to about 339,000 in 2025, a contraction of 26%. Tunisia’s Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries also confirmed that the national cattle herd declined by nearly 26% in 2025. Small farmers have been particularly affected as repeated rainfall deficits reduced pasture and fodder availability while feed and other agricultural inputs became more expensive.
Farm profitability threatens milk availability
Industry professionals say the price paid to farmers for a litre of milk remains below its actual production cost. Lower purchasing power and restricted credit access have added to the pressure, leading some farmers to sell cattle or send animals to slaughter early. The resulting herd contraction has reduced local milk output and increased the risk of shortages, although industry representatives describe the greater threat as a gradual erosion of production capacity rather than an abrupt supply break.
Regulatory stocks remain an important buffer between periods of high and low lactation. Tunisia set its stock of sterilised fresh milk at 19.7 million litres in 2025 to absorb seasonal fluctuations, support farmgate prices and limit economic losses from temporary surpluses. These reserves also help reduce dependence on imported dairy products. However, storage cannot compensate indefinitely for a shrinking herd, weaker animal productivity and the growing cost of water and feed.
Early warnings and lower water use
Industry participants have proposed a national milk-alert index, updated weekly, that would combine four indicators: raw milk availability, herd conditions, industrial inventories and climate forecasts. If two or three indicators moved into the warning zone, processors, distributors and public authorities would receive an early signal. The proposal is intended to prevent intervention from being delayed until retail shelves begin to empty.
A second proposal is a water-efficient dairy farm programme. Selected farms would receive support to produce more milk with less water and fewer imported feeds. Measures could include efficient drinking systems, technically feasible recovery and reuse of agricultural water, less water-intensive fodder crops, use of cereal and olive residues, and sensors to monitor water consumption and animal health. Performance would be assessed not only by milk yield per cow, but also by litres of milk produced per cubic metre of water.
Targets for 2030 require investment and coordination
A prospective strategy for the sector through 2030 aims to restore economic viability, improve competitiveness and develop production toward self-sufficiency. The proposals include quality-based milk pricing, incentives across the supply chain and measures designed to limit productivity costs to 10%. The plan also envisages stable herd growth of 0.6% during the 2020-2030 decade.
The study projects an 86% increase in the collection rate by 2030 and an industrial processing rate of 97%, with the aim of reducing parallel market channels. Milk exports are expected to increase by 14%, while annual per-capita consumption of industrial milk and dairy products is projected to rise by 3.8%. Reaching those targets will depend on preserving the remaining herd, improving farm returns and aligning water management, collection capacity, processing and demand before supply pressure develops into a wider market disruption.
