Tighter EU Cattle Supply May Limit Beef Price Declines
EU cattle slaughter weight fell 2% year on year in the first four months of 2026, while beef exports outside the bloc dropped 8% to their lowest level since 2013. Bank Pekao analysts expect constrained supply to limit price declines despite weaker Chinese demand and growing global competition.
Chinese demand weighs on the global market
The global beef market is showing signs of softer conditions as China, the world's largest beef importer, moves to restrict purchases through import quotas. Farmer.pl reported, citing Bank Pekao analysts, that the measures will apply particularly to supplies from Brazil and Australia.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that China's beef imports will fall 13% year on year in 2026. Some of the displaced supply is expected to move to other markets, primarily the United States, but this will not fully compensate exporters for lower Chinese demand.
Global beef prices have weakened slightly as a result, although they remain about 12% higher than a year earlier on average. Bank Pekao expects increasing competition between suppliers to remain a source of pressure in the coming months.
EU production and exports contract
Conditions within the European Union differ from the broader global picture. Bank Pekao economists identify declining production, rather than demand alone, as the main factor shaping the bloc's beef market. The weight of cattle slaughtered in the EU during the first four months of 2026 was 2% lower than in the same period of 2025.
Poland recorded the largest production-volume decline among the EU's ten biggest beef producers, according to Farmer.pl. The tighter supply also reduced shipments outside the bloc. EU beef exports between January and April fell 8% year on year and reached their lowest level since 2013.
Imports from non-EU countries have partly filled the gap. Bank Pekao's analysis shows that EU beef imports increased 25% year on year during the first months of 2026, with Brazil accounting for the largest share of the growth. These additional volumes eased supply pressure but did not trigger a sharp fall in prices.
Price correction expected to remain limited
EU beef prices have eased from record highs at the beginning of the year. Analysts linked the decline mainly to weaker purchasing at elevated price levels. Meat processors also reduced the prices offered for slaughter cattle, but the adjustment remained modest. In June, Polish plants paid only about 3% less for slaughter cattle than a year earlier.
Further pressure could come from greater competition on the world market and from an increase in dairy cows sent for slaughter. Deteriorating dairy profitability may encourage some farmers to reduce their herds, raising the volume of cattle available to meat processors.
Bank Pekao nevertheless does not expect cattle prices to collapse. The limited number of animals available in the EU remains the market's principal support. Further corrections are possible, but their scale should remain contained while European beef production stays below last year's level. For Polish cattle farmers, this points to relatively supportive livestock prices, although volatility may be higher than during the first half of 2026.
