Heavy Rain in Thailand and Malaysia Raises Natural Rubber Supply Risks

Futures and export offers edge higher

Natural rubber markets opened the September 28 session with modest gains as traders assessed heavy-rain forecasts across two major Southeast Asian producing countries. Vietnambiz reported that the October rubber contract on the Osaka Exchange rose by 1.7 yen, or 0.38%, to 455 yen per kilogram. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the October contract gained 30 yuan, or 0.16%, to 18,560 yuan per tonne.

Thailand's RSS3 export offer, FOB Laem Chabang, increased by 0.3 baht, or 0.32%, to 94.90 baht per kilogram. The movements were limited, but they came as the Thai Meteorological Department forecast heavy to very heavy rain in numerous areas. Malaysia's meteorological agency also expected thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in parts of the country.

Weather constrains harvesting

Industry expert Denis Low told Bernama that Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur rubber market could remain volatile during the new trading week because of adverse weather and geopolitical tensions. He said natural rubber prices and demand could move sideways with a slight upward bias. Oil-price movements and the US dollar were also likely to influence demand and pricing, adding to uncertainty.

Rain can restrict tapping and the collection of latex even when processing capacity and underlying demand remain unchanged. According to Low, supply was managed well during the previous week, although intermittent heavy rainfall produced some tightening. Improving demand kept the market sufficiently balanced to maintain availability.

The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association, or MARGMA, presented a more cautious near-term assessment. It said the market could cool slightly because of a stronger ringgit and weaker Chinese rubber production and demand following the Mid-Autumn Festival. Nevertheless, natural rubber and latex prices could remain elevated within a narrow range.

MARGMA also said sentiment was being influenced by the possibility of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran despite continuing attacks on oil facilities. Expectations surrounding a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could also support confidence, according to the association.

China's import mix sends uneven demand signal

China imported 486,000 tonnes of natural rubber in August, according to customs figures published by the China Natural Rubber Association. Volume increased 6% from July but fell 6.7% from a year earlier. Import value reached $1.046 billion, rising 7.3% month on month and 12.6% year on year.

Imports during the first eight months totaled 4.0758 million tonnes, down 1.1% from the corresponding period. Thailand was the largest August supplier with 185,800 tonnes, representing 38.2% of the total. Laos supplied 80,700 tonnes, or 16.6%, while Vietnam shipped 72,700 tonnes, equivalent to 14.9%.

The product breakdown showed divergent trends. Mixed rubber imports reached 218,800 tonnes, down 12.4% from July and 18.5% year on year. Technically specified rubber imports fell 25.9% month on month and 8.4% year on year to 103,600 tonnes. Natural latex imports, however, climbed 137.6% from July to 22,500 tonnes, although they remained 44.8% below the previous year's level. Ordinary trade accounted for 346,800 tonnes, or 71.3% of China's August imports.

Vietnamese procurement prices hold steady

Vietnamese processors maintained their purchase quotations. At Binh Long, the factory price was 540 dong per TSC degree per kilogram, while production teams offered 530 dong per TSC degree per kilogram. Scrap latex with 60% dry rubber content remained at 18,000 dong per kilogram. MangYang quoted field latex at about 458-463 dong per TSC degree for grades two to one and coagulated scrap at approximately 404-459 dong per DRC degree. The stable domestic quotations contrast with the modest gains in regional futures and export offers, leaving weather-driven harvesting losses as the immediate variable for physical supply.