Tanzania’s rice surplus highlights Cameroon’s widening production gap

Tanzania builds a regional rice surplus

Between 2018 and 2023, Tanzania moved from being a structural rice importer to a net exporter serving neighboring members of the East African Community. News du Camer reports that Tanzanian output reached 2.13 million tonnes of milled rice five years after production had only just covered domestic consumption.

Since 2020, Tanzania has exported an average of 386,000 tonnes annually, with nearly 99% going duty-free to other East African Community markets. The country’s food self-sufficiency ratio has reached 128%. Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are identified as major regional destinations, replacing part of the rice previously sourced from South Asia.

The expansion rests on a national rice development strategy introduced in 2009 and implemented in two phases, with the second running through 2030. An interministerial task force publishes semiannual assessments against numerical targets. Tanzania aims to nearly triple milled-rice production to 6.85 million tonnes by 2030.

Irrigation and market access support investment

Irrigation has been central to the production increase. The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania, launched in 2010-2011, helped turn valleys such as Kilombero into areas capable of producing two or three crops per year, compared with one harvest under rain-fed farming. Improved varieties including SARO 5 and peer-to-peer agricultural training also raised productivity without requiring expensive mechanization.

Regional demand provided a commercial outlet for the additional crop. Neighboring East African Community countries have a combined rice deficit of more than 2 million tonnes, according to News du Camer. Duty-free access therefore gives Tanzanian farmers, millers and traders a nearby market for surplus production. Kenya still imports 90% of its rice but has pursued irrigation expansion since 2019, including the Thiba dam completed in 2022.

Cameroon’s import bill remains elevated

Cameroon has followed a different path. Citing the National Institute of Statistics, News du Camer says the country’s rice import bill rose 59% in 2024 to 318.5 billion CFA francs, from 200.8 billion CFA francs in 2023. That was a seven-year record and twice the 2020 level. Rice accounted for 58.6% of the total cereal import bill.

The cost fell 15.6% to 268.7 billion CFA francs in 2025, a decline attributed mainly to higher customs duties: an additional 5% on ordinary rice and 20% on luxury rice. These measures may restrain imports, but they do not by themselves increase yields, irrigation capacity or milling output.

Cameroon has announced plans to add 70,000 hectares and raise domestic rice production from 140,710 to 460,000 tonnes. Even at that target, output would remain well below domestic demand of more than 1.2 million tonnes. The country’s PIISAH program covers 2024-2026, while the broader SND30 also targets agricultural development, but the publication argues that implementation and accountability remain weaker than in Tanzania.

The comparison has consequences beyond farming. Cameroon’s public debt reached 15.607 trillion CFA francs at the end of June 2026, and the IMF classifies the country as being at high risk of external debt distress, according to News du Camer. Reducing rice imports could ease pressure on foreign exchange and the trade balance, but doing so would require sustained investment in irrigation, seed distribution, extension services and processing. Tanzania’s experience indicates that production targets become commercially effective when they are paired with reliable infrastructure, regular monitoring and access to a large regional deficit market.