Spanish olive oil sector expects larger 2027 crop to support farmgate prices

Industry looks to the October campaign

Spain’s olive oil market is heading into the next campaign with expectations of a substantial production increase after a relatively small harvest. The campaign begins in October, and the most optimistic industry forecasts cited by Ideal put the coming collection at up to 1.7 billion kg.

Producers expect the larger crop to bring a degree of improvement to the market in 2027. For consumers, that means olive oil could remain affordable as more domestic supply reaches supermarkets. Growers, however, are focused on recovering the price paid at origin after the recent sharp decline left some farms unable to cover production costs.

Farmgate and retail prices may move differently

The sector’s objective is not necessarily a higher supermarket price. Farmers want a larger share of the final value, allowing farmgate prices to improve without pushing up the amount paid by consumers. According to Ideal, producers therefore expect olive oil to remain relatively inexpensive by the litre in Spain during 2027.

Whether that balance can be achieved will depend on the size and quality of the harvest, as well as the way processors, distributors and retailers transmit changes in supply through the chain. A crop near the upper end of the forecast would give Spain more oil to place in both domestic and international markets, but it could also limit the scope for a broad price rebound if demand does not rise at the same pace.

Tunisian imports draw scrutiny

Imports have become a source of tension. Spanish farmers have raised particular concerns about olive oil arriving from Tunisia, alleging that some volumes entered without appropriate controls. They argue that imported supply, combined with falling prices, has intensified pressure on domestic production margins. The source does not provide import volumes or identify the controls considered missing.

The international supply picture could nevertheless become more supportive for Spain in 2027. Industry experts cited by Ideal expect Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey, which benefited from good harvests this year, to produce less and lose some weight in global markets. They describe olive oil production as cyclical, with stronger Spanish harvests often coinciding with weaker output among competing origins.

Italy faces a separate production problem. Sector specialists cited by Ideal report that an epidemic has destroyed part of the olive-growing population in southeastern Italy, including century-old groves. Against that background, Spain’s projected recovery could reinforce its position in the international market. The immediate test will be whether the larger crop improves returns for growers while preserving the lower retail prices sought by consumers.