Spain has already sold 82% of its 2025/2026 olive oil crop, lifting price pressure
Spanish mills have sold more than 82% of the 2025/2026 olive oil crop — 1.07 million of 1.3 million tonnes — according to AICA data reported by merca2.es. With most of the remaining 683,344 tonnes held by packers and retailers, the industry expects supermarket prices to firm over the summer.
Most of the crop is already committed
Spanish olive mills have sold more than 82% of the oil produced in the 2025/2026 campaign, according to the latest figures from the Food Information and Control Agency (AICA), reported by merca2.es. As of 30 June, cumulative outflows reached 1.07 million tonnes against total production of 1.3 million tonnes. The selling pace is similar to the previous season, but farm groups say the volume already committed leaves little room for retail discounts in the weeks ahead.
Total stocks stand at 683,344 tonnes, but most of that volume now sits with packers and the retail trade rather than with mills. With four months to go until the new harvest, COAG describes the expected carryover as "quite tight." When supply concentrates in a few operators and demand holds, the agency notes, the final price tends to rise.
Low farm-gate prices, firm shelf prices
Farmer organisations COAG, Asaja and UPA agree that speculation is distorting the market. Growers are paid around 3.5 euros per kilo, well below the 5-euro profitability threshold cited by UPA, while distribution holds 25% more oil than a year ago. Francisco Elvira, head of the olive sector at COAG Andalucía, said sales continue but at prices that "do not reflect market reality," pointing to supplies of oil from third countries and speculative moves that push down the price at origin.
UPA Andalucía calculates that producers have lost more than 1.2 billion euros in income since October 2025, or slightly more than 4 million euros a day. "The farmer remains the big loser," said Jesús Cózar, the organisation's secretary general. Spain's Food Chain Law requires every link in the chain to cover costs, but rain-fed and hillside olive growers remain far from that point.
Trade flows and imports
Imports of non-EU olive oil are also shaping the market. With somewhat weaker consumption in the United States amid trade tensions, Spanish oil is seeking other markets, while the domestic market takes in foreign product. Asaja Jaén estimates that end-of-campaign stocks will exceed 300,000 tonnes — a buffer that could soften a sharp rise but not prevent it.
What the consumer faces
According to merca2.es, AICA data show that oil outflows in June were slightly below last year's level, but the annual cumulative figure is higher in percentage terms. That indicates demand has not slowed despite high shelf prices, giving packers grounds to keep upward pressure in place. In 2025, the closing stretch of the campaign left store prices above 9 euros per litre for certain varieties; in 2023, a shorter harvest pushed extra virgin olive oil above 10 euros per litre. Current stocks are somewhat higher than in 2023, but financial speculation and competition from cheaper oils such as sunflower and pomace can distort the perception of scarcity. The report advises consumers to focus on the price per litre rather than the package format and to compare prices across stores before stocking up.
