Spain’s olive oil output could reach 1.7 billion kg as producers expect price relief in 2027

Spanish output forecast to recover

Spain’s olive oil industry expects a substantial production recovery in the next campaign, raising the prospect of lower consumer prices in 2027. Producers consulted by OKDIARIO forecast output of between 1.5 billion and 1.7 billion kg, compared with nearly 1.3 billion kg in the current harvest. The upper end of that range would represent an increase of around 400 million kg.

The publication said the most optimistic forecasts point to a harvest of as much as 1.7 billion kg. Industry sources expect an improvement of between 200 million and 400 million kg after what they described as a relatively small crop. Producers anticipate that the larger volume will bring a degree of price relief to Spanish supermarkets, although the source material provides no specific price forecast.

The expected rebound reflects the cyclical nature of olive production, according to the producers. Spain’s stronger seasons can coincide with weaker crops in other Mediterranean suppliers. That pattern could reinforce Spain’s position as the world’s leading producer at a time when several competitors are expected to place less oil on international markets.

Rival Mediterranean suppliers face smaller crops

OKDIARIO reports that Morocco’s production could fall to 100 million kg next year, 80 million kg below the current season. Tunisia is expected to decline from 512 million kg to approximately 250 million-300 million kg. Turkey, which produced more than 400 million kg in the current harvest, is forecast to remain below 300 million kg.

Those reductions would offset part of Spain’s recovery in the wider Mediterranean supply balance. At the top of the respective forecast ranges, Spain would add 400 million kg while Tunisia alone could lose between 212 million and 262 million kg. Morocco and Turkey would also contribute less. The figures therefore suggest a redistribution of regional production toward Spain rather than an equally large increase in total supply across the four countries.

Italy remains in a different position. Sources cited by OKDIARIO said an epidemic destroyed part of the olive-growing population in the country’s southeast, including century-old groves. Italian production is now around 280 million kg, leaving it below Tunisia’s current output and Turkey’s reported crop. The contraction has allowed North African producers to gain ground in the global production ranking.

Imports may ease as export capacity improves

Spain’s crop of nearly 1.3 billion kg was insufficient to prevent additional imports during the current season. According to OKDIARIO, the country increased its purchases of Moroccan olive oil ninetyfold. A domestic harvest of 1.5 billion-1.7 billion kg could reduce the need for such exceptional sourcing, while providing Spanish processors and exporters with more product for international customers.

The commercial effect will depend on how much of the optimistic forecast reaches mills and on the scale of the declines elsewhere. More Spanish oil should improve availability and create downward pressure on domestic prices. At the same time, smaller harvests in Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey could limit the fall in international prices. For exporters, Spain’s larger crop and competitors’ reduced volumes would strengthen its ability to serve markets affected by tighter Mediterranean supply in 2027.