Spain forecasts 19% larger lemon crop as competition returns to Europe

Harvest forecast rises 19%

Spain’s lemon industry is preparing for a larger crop and stronger international competition as it seeks to preserve its leading position in the European market. AILIMPO President Joaquín Rubio told Cadena SER at Fruit Attraction 2026 that the central challenge for the new campaign is to retain the market share secured by Spanish lemons in their main European destinations.

AILIMPO’s crop estimates place lemon production 19% above the previous campaign. The increase will require careful management of supply, but Rubio said the projected volume remains manageable and is well below the 2023-2024 campaign, when the market was unable to absorb the full harvest.

The interprofessional organization is producing its estimates through the Agefis project. The system monitors and samples more than 2,000 hectares of citrus orchards, providing the industry with more precise information on crop development. That visibility will be particularly important as growers, exporters and distributors adjust commercial programs to the larger available volume.

South African supply delays Fino sales

Marketing of Spain’s Fino lemon began later than usual because substantial volumes of South African fruit remained in European markets, particularly in the Netherlands. That supply slowed the entry of Spanish lemons into established distribution channels. Rubio said activity had already begun to recover, with important volumes handled in the previous week and sales reaching normal levels in the current week.

The overlap has also affected prices, which are below the levels recorded in the previous campaign. The pricing environment raises the stakes for supply management: Spain must place a crop that is 19% larger without repeating the imbalance of 2023-2024, while ensuring that returns remain viable for both farmers and marketing companies.

Quality expectations are nevertheless positive. The industry has recorded a higher incidence of pests such as red spider mite, while rainfall could encourage some fungal diseases. However, winter precipitation supported orchard development, and AILIMPO expects good-quality lemons and grapefruit. The organization is presenting traceability, food safety and sustainability as key attributes of Spanish citrus in its competition with overseas suppliers.

Turkey returns to eastern European markets

Competition will also be stronger later in the campaign. A small Turkish crop supported Spanish exports in the previous season, particularly to eastern European countries. Turkey is now returning to normal production levels and is expected to compete more forcefully in those markets, removing an advantage that Spanish exporters enjoyed last year.

European demand provides some stability. According to Rubio, lemon consumption is highly consistent because the fruit is firmly established in European diets, with available data indicating growth of close to 3% a year. Europe will therefore remain Spain’s principal commercial destination, but stable consumption does not eliminate the pressure created by larger Spanish output and renewed Turkish supply.

Fruit Attraction, held in Madrid, is serving as a venue for producers, exporters and distributors to finalize campaign planning and reinforce relationships with major customers. For the Spanish industry, commercial execution will determine whether favorable quality and steady demand can offset lower opening prices and increased competition. AILIMPO’s stated objective is not only to defend Spain’s European leadership, but also to secure profitable prices across the chain, from growers to marketing companies.