Spain forecasts 5.74 million-tonne citrus crop, still 4.2% below average
Spain forecasts 5,744,841 tonnes of citrus in 2026/27, up 1.1% from last season but 4.2% below the five-year average. Stronger lemon and grapefruit crops will only partly offset another decline in oranges.
Recovery follows decade-low harvest
Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food forecasts citrus production of 5,744,841 tonnes in the 2026/27 season, which began on September 1. The estimate is 1.1% above the previous campaign but remains 4.2% below the average of the past five seasons. Agronews Comunitat Valenciana reported that the 2025/26 harvest was the lowest in a decade, making the projected recovery modest when measured against Spain’s recent productive capacity.
The new estimate adds about 62,500 tonnes to last season’s output, according to El Periódico Mediterráneo. Even so, the country is expected to produce roughly 253,000 tonnes less than its five-season average. The forecast was presented by Ana Rodríguez Castaño, secretary general for Agricultural Resources and Food Safety, using information supplied by the main citrus-producing autonomous communities.
Weather conditions produced mixed results. Winter and spring rainfall maintained adequate water availability and generally did not cause significant disruption to flowering or pollination. High summer temperatures subsequently triggered substantial fruit drop, particularly in oranges and clementines, reducing earlier crop expectations. The effect on small citrus was pronounced enough for forecast clementine production to fall to the same level as mandarins and hybrids for the first time.
Oranges fall as lemons rebound
Orange production is forecast at 2,812,720 tonnes, down 4.6% from 2025/26 and 7.4% below the five-year average. Agronews Comunitat Valenciana puts the annual reduction at 134,300 tonnes and the shortfall against the average at 224,600 tonnes. Oranges will account for about 49% of Spain’s total citrus crop, with the Navel group representing 72% of orange output.
Small citrus, including mandarins and clementines, is expected to reach 1,813,296 tonnes. That would be 0.8% more than last season but 4.5%, or 85,800 tonnes, below the five-year average. Satsumas are forecast to represent 5.6% of this category, clementines 47.3%, and mandarins and hybrids 47.1%. Production of mandarins and hybrids is expected to increase by 19% from 2025/26.
Lemons provide the strongest recovery. The forecast of 991,800 tonnes is 21.1% above last season and 3% above the recent average. Agronews Comunitat Valenciana calculates the annual gain at 172,900 tonnes. Fino lemons will account for 76% of production and Verna for 23%. Grapefruit output is forecast at 110,223 tonnes, up 4.7% year on year and 26.6% above average, setting a third consecutive record as planted area expands. Other citrus production is estimated at 16,802 tonnes, up 28.7%.
Export supply will vary by category
Spain remains the European Union’s largest citrus producer and ranks sixth worldwide, according to Agronews Comunitat Valenciana. Its citrus exports averaged almost 3.25 million tonnes per season between 2021/22 and 2025/26, worth close to €3.586 billion. Spain is also the world’s leading fresh-citrus trader by value, accounting for around 25% of global exports.
An average 51% of Spanish citrus production is exported. The proportion exceeds 60% for small citrus and lemons and reaches 82% for grapefruit. These ratios mean the larger lemon and grapefruit crops could increase availability for foreign buyers and packing facilities. Orange suppliers face the opposite situation: lower national output may limit volumes available for packing and exports, especially because the crop is already well below its recent average.
Castellón illustrates the uneven regional picture. The Unió Llauradora forecasts about 553,500 tonnes in the province, only 2% above last season. Small citrus should contribute around 351,000 tonnes, including approximately 250,000 tonnes of the locally important Clemenules variety and 72,000 tonnes of hybrids. Orange production is estimated at about 130,000 tonnes, up nearly 7.6%, contrasting with the national decline. Clemenules output nevertheless remains far below its potential, preventing the province’s limited increase from representing a full recovery.
