Spain’s €22.27 Billion Biosimilar Savings Forecast Faces Competition Risk
Biosimilars are forecast to save Spain’s National Health System €22.27 billion between 2024 and 2030. However, IQVIA warns that 55% of biologic medicines losing patent protection may attract no biosimilar competitor, threatening projected savings.
Savings forecast rises toward 2030
Biosimilar medicines are expected to save Spain’s National Health System €22.27 billion between 2024 and 2030, according to a report from the Spanish Biosimilar Medicines Association, BioSim, cited by El Economista. The forecast rises from €2.068 billion in 2024 to €2.410 billion in 2025, €2.836 billion in 2026 and €3.189 billion in 2027. Annual savings are projected to reach €3.536 billion in 2028, €3.878 billion in 2029 and €4.352 billion in 2030.
The estimate covers a Spanish portfolio expected to include medicines based on 27 molecules over the next five years. It builds on €5.803 billion of savings generated between 2020 and 2023. Five products accounted for 73.9% of that earlier total: adalimumab saved €1.814 billion, infliximab €1.062 billion, rituximab €529 million, erythropoietin €497 million and bevacizumab €375 million.
A small group of molecules drives the forecast
Adalimumab biosimilars are projected to deliver the largest annual saving in 2030, at €1.1529 billion. Products from Stada, Amgen, Sandoz and Celltrion are among those competing with AbbVie’s reference medicine Humira. Ustekinumab follows with expected savings of €693.4 million, ahead of infliximab at €546.4 million, rituximab at €212.3 million and bevacizumab at €173.5 million.
The pipeline should broaden the market. El Economista reported that biosimilars for denosumab, omalizumab and aflibercept were expected to begin commercialisation in 2025. Golimumab and pertuzumab were scheduled for 2026, followed by vedolizumab in 2028. Biosimilars for nivolumab and secukinumab are expected at the beginning of the next decade. In Spain, a biosimilar must enter at a price 20% to 30% below the reference product, according to the BioSim report.
Low returns could leave patents without successors
The central risk is that patent expiry does not automatically create competition. An IQVIA report cited by El Economista estimates that 55% of biologic medicines losing patent protection may receive no biosimilar alternative. Price trends and the sales volume of each molecule are the main factors determining whether development remains commercially attractive. BioSim also warns that excessive price erosion can weaken incentives for research and development, eventually reducing the savings available to the health system.
Adoption is fastest for acute treatments dispensed in hospitals, followed by chronic therapies, while uptake through retail pharmacies is slower. Most biosimilars are administered in hospitals, so that is where their effect on pharmaceutical expenditure is strongest. The policy challenge is therefore two-sided: Spain needs sufficiently low prices to produce public savings, but also a market capable of supporting several suppliers. Without investment incentives, physician familiarity and adequate demand, the projected €22.27 billion depends on competition that may not emerge for many expiring biologics.
