Soybean prices retreat in Brazil and Chicago as Northern Hemisphere harvest advances
Soybean prices declined in Brazil and Chicago after strong September gains as the Northern Hemisphere harvest accelerated. Brazilian export premiums limited the domestic impact, while soybean oil, canola and other oilseed markets followed divergent paths.
Harvest pressure reverses September gains
Domestic and international soybean-complex prices have retreated after rising significantly in September. Brazil’s Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics, Cepea, attributed the external pressure to the advancing 2026/27 harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. In Chicago, the CBOT November 2026 soybean contract lost 5.75 cents between October 1 and 2 to close at $12.7825 per bushel, taking its weekly decline to 40.75 cents. January soybeans fell 6.25 cents to $12.9450 per bushel, according to Réussir.
The US harvest remained the main source of seasonal pressure. Forecasts for drier weather across large producing regions favored faster fieldwork, while technical selling also weighed on futures. CFTC data showed that funds reduced their net long position by 23,877 contracts in the week ended September 29, leaving it at 241,164 contracts, mainly through the liquidation of long positions.
Brazilian premiums cushion the domestic market
Cepea reported lower spot-market liquidity in Brazil following the sharp external decline. Soybean tariffs were left outside negotiations between the United States and China, contributing to the fall in international prices. However, the decline supported Brazilian export premiums and limited the transmission of weaker global quotations to domestic prices.
Attention in South America is shifting to Brazilian planting. StoneX estimated the country’s 2026/27 soybean crop at 183.36 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from its previous forecast of 183.5 million tonnes and 0.4% above the preceding season. Planting was progressing normally in most producing regions, but irregular rainfall in Mato Grosso keeps weather risk in focus.
Soybean oil and canola diverge from beans
US processors crushed 209.6 million bushels of soybeans in August, according to USDA figures cited by Réussir. The volume was 5.5% lower than in July but 5.9% higher than a year earlier. Soybean oil stocks fell 13.6% month on month to 1.696 billion pounds, supporting the December oil contract, which gained 1.24 cents per pound to 68.62 cents. December soybean meal moved in the opposite direction, losing $5.80 to $347.50 per short ton.
Canola also recovered in Winnipeg, supported by soybean oil. The November contract rose C$3.80 per tonne to C$815.50, although harvest pressure and warm, dry Prairie forecasts capped gains. Canadian producers delivered 707,500 tonnes of canola in the week ended September 27, up 33% from the previous week. Weekly exports reached 130,700 tonnes, roughly triple the previous week, while season-to-date shipments totaled 921,700 tonnes against 715,600 tonnes a year earlier.
European and Asian markets send mixed signals
Euronext rapeseed lacked a uniform direction: November fell €1.50 per tonne to €536.75, while February gained €3.50 to €555.25. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry estimated winter rapeseed area would decline by about 7%. Agricultural shipments were also reported at around 48,000 tonnes per day, compared with roughly 144,000 tonnes during the first half of the previous month, amid severe logistical disruption.
In Malaysia, December palm oil dropped 21 ringgit to MYR4,535 per tonne, its lowest close in twelve weeks, as weak exports, improved production and expectations that stocks could exceed 3 million tonnes pressured prices. The contract lost 2.98% over the week. With China’s Dalian exchange closed for the National Day holiday, the market lacked a Chinese price signal, and stronger US soybean oil was insufficient to reverse the Malaysian decline.
