Soybean Prices Rise as US Soybean Oil Stocks Fall to Lowest Since 2024
World soybean prices climbed on September 15 as US soybean oil stocks fell to their lowest level since November 2024, Brazil's CONAB projected the smallest planting expansion in roughly 20 years, and China stepped up purchases of US soybeans.
Soybean Complex Rallies on Tightening US Oil Stocks
Global soybean prices advanced on September 15, lifting the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam's MXV-Index by nearly 1.4% to 3,035 points, its highest level in four months, according to MXV. Six of the seven agricultural commodities tracked by the index rose, led by the soybean complex, with soybean meal posting the sharpest gain of the session.
The November soybean futures contract closed up 1.1% at $484.6 per tonne, the December soybean meal contract rose 2.6% to $402.8 per tonne, and the December soybean oil contract added 0.2% to $1,551 per tonne. MXV said the complex was supported simultaneously by South American supply prospects, a decline in US soybean oil stocks, and moves by China to free up storage capacity ahead of new import shipments.
Brazil's Planting Expansion Slows to a 20-Year Low
Brazil's national supply agency CONAB, in its 2026-2027 season survey, projected soybean planting area to rise 0.7% to 49.3 million hectares, the smallest increase in roughly 20 years, as fertilizer costs and interest rates remain elevated. CONAB forecast full-season production at 181.6 million tonnes, 4.4 million tonnes below the US Department of Agriculture's earlier estimate of 186 million tonnes. In major growing regions including Mato Grosso and Goias, early-season rainfall has not yet reached the moisture levels needed for planting, adding to market caution over South American supply.
Record US Crush Meets Falling Oil Stocks
In the United States, the National Oilseed Processors Association's August crush report showed processors crushed 5.6 million tonnes of soybeans, a record for the month. Soybean oil stocks held by US crushers, however, fell 11.7% at the end of August to 544,800 tonnes, well below the market's expected 570,200 tonnes and the lowest level since November 2024.
USDA's Crop Progress report put the share of the US soybean crop rated good to excellent at 58%, down from 63% a year earlier, while harvest progress reached 6%, double the five-year average. Persistent heavy rainfall across parts of the Midwest, from Nebraska through Iowa to Wisconsin, is slowing harvest activity. Tight spot supply has prompted crushers in the western Corn Belt to raise basis levels by $18.4-22 per tonne over CBOT futures to attract soybeans.
- US crush margins recovered to $94.4 per tonne, with soybean meal accounting for 51% of margin value, the highest share in seven months
- WTI crude above $100 per barrel is supporting demand for soybean oil as biodiesel feedstock
China Steps Up Buying as Funds Add Length
China's state reserve manager, Sinograin, has launched a series of auctions for 1-1.5 million tonnes of aging domestic soybean reserves, aimed at freeing storage capacity ahead of new-crop shipments from the United States. USDA export inspection data showed nearly 329,300 tonnes of US soybeans were shipped toward China in the past week, part of total weekly US grain export inspections of 672,200 tonnes. CFTC data showed money managers held a net long position of 257,258 soybean futures contracts, up 22,338 contracts on the week.
In Vietnam, import feed prices are tracking the rise in world prices and movements in the dong-dollar exchange rate, with logistics-chain risks keeping the market cautious. Soybean meal and soybean offer prices delivered to the Cai Mep, Phu My and Cai Lan port clusters for October-November 2026 shipment stood at 13,250 dong per kilogram; supply in the north remains limited for September, prompting some buyers to source from the south.
Đào Thị Linh, head of investment consulting at Ho Chi Minh City Commodity Exchange, an MXV member, said soybean prices are being supported by expectations of improved Chinese demand as Washington and Beijing discuss possible tariff cuts on some agricultural goods. She said China is estimated to have bought around 1 million tonnes of US soybeans in the past week, while NOPA data showed August crush volume up 8.2% year-on-year, though below forecast.
