South Korea forecast to retain global memory chip lead through 2031 as HBM demand diversifies
South Korean memory chipmakers are expected to retain their global leadership through 2031 as AI demand shifts from model training toward inference. Nvidia’s share of HBM demand is forecast to fall from 66% last year to 58% this year as large technology companies deploy more proprietary AI chips.
AI inference broadens the HBM customer base
South Korean memory semiconductor companies are forecast to retain their leading position in the global market through 2031, supported by expanding demand for high-bandwidth memory and planned growth in domestic wafer production capacity. The outlook comes as artificial intelligence workloads move beyond large-scale model training toward inference, where trained models deliver services to users.
Maeil Business Newspaper, citing French market research company Yole Group, reported that this change is widening the range of customers for HBM. Demand has been heavily concentrated around Nvidia’s accelerators, but Google and other large technology companies are developing proprietary AI processors that also require advanced memory.
Nvidia accounted for 66% of HBM demand last year, according to the report. Its share is expected to decline to 58% this year. The forecast points to reduced concentration rather than weaker overall demand: proprietary chips from major technology groups are expected to expand the total market available to HBM suppliers.
Technology and yields remain central
Shorter release cycles for graphics processors could provide another source of demand. Each new generation requires memory suppliers to qualify products, secure stable output and adapt designs to individual customers. The ability to develop next-generation products such as HBM4, maintain reliable yields and offer customized solutions is therefore expected to determine competitiveness.
For South Korean producers, a more diverse customer base could reduce dependence on one dominant buyer while increasing the technical burden of serving multiple chip architectures. Suppliers may need to manage different qualification schedules, packaging requirements and performance targets without sacrificing yields or delivery reliability.
The South Korean government’s plan to expand wafer production capacity was also identified as support for the country’s memory industry. The source material provides no capacity figure or implementation timetable, but additional wafer output could strengthen the manufacturing base needed for advanced memory if it is matched by processing technology and qualified demand.
Chinese competition and supply risk
China’s progress remains a potential challenge. Maeil Business Newspaper said leading Chinese companies are considered to have reached current-generation process levels. Continued investment by competitors could intensify price competition and make profitability harder to protect, even while AI applications create new demand.
Supply growth is another risk. Goldman Sachs has warned of possible HBM oversupply and downward pressure on prices after 2026. For producers, investors and buyers, the central issue is whether broader demand from inference and proprietary AI chips can absorb new capacity. South Korea’s expected leadership through 2031 will depend not only on production scale, but also on HBM4 development, stable yields and the ability to qualify products across a less concentrated customer market.