South Africa’s record agricultural exports face citrus market-access risk

Record earnings rest on a concentrated export base

South African agriculture generated R341 million in foreign exchange per day in 2025, exceeding the combined daily earnings of gold and platinum mining, according to Algoa FM’s account of the AgriSA Agriculture Annual Trade Report 2025. The report, covering agricultural trade from 2021 through 2025, presents a sector with strong export performance but growing exposure to biosecurity problems, infrastructure bottlenecks and distortions in global trade.

Horticulture produced a net surplus of R128.1 billion, more than the total agricultural trade surplus because an agronomy deficit of R9 billion, driven mainly by palm oil and wheat imports, reduced the overall result. AgriSA puts the agricultural surplus at R124.6 billion. Citrus contributed an estimated R11.8 billion to the increase in that balance, accounting for about 67% of its total expansion during the review period.

Livestock recorded a R5.6 billion surplus, supported by higher fish and lamb exports. Lamb shipments rose 677% from 2021 to R1.16 billion as market access improved, exchange rates remained favourable and the product’s reputation strengthened. Saudi Arabia continued to expand as a destination, primarily because of sustained demand for halal lamb.

Citrus rules create the largest immediate exposure

The scale of the citrus contribution has created a national single-commodity risk. Between 35% and 40% of South African citrus exports go to the EU, leaving R10 billion-R20 billion in annual revenue potentially exposed to tighter sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions or greater competitive pressure. Across the EU and UK, the value at stake is higher: AgriSA estimates that R23 billion-R29 billion of citrus exports could be affected.

The main regulatory concerns include lower maximum residue limits, thresholds for false codling moth interceptions and the continuing dispute over citrus black spot. The EU is also strengthening environmental, pesticide, traceability and sustainability requirements for agricultural imports. Although these measures pursue consumer and environmental objectives, the report says they increase compliance costs and could exclude smaller exporters with limited resources from the highest-value fresh fruit market.

Market diversification has provided some protection. Losses in the US resulting from tariffs were offset by growth in Africa, the EU and BRICS+ markets. Russia registered the strongest growth among major destinations, while China remained under pressure because of its domestic economic slowdown and continuing phytosanitary frictions.

African growth cannot yet replace major markets

Exports to African countries reached R94.4 billion, about 34% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports. The continent has become particularly important for staple and field crops. However, AgriSA says expanding corridors and new export platforms in Africa are not yet large enough to compensate for a major disruption in established markets.

South Africa’s agricultural exports remained concentrated in 20 priority markets across Africa, Europe, Asia and the US. At the same time, trade is increasingly divided along political and strategic lines. That exposes exporters to disputes unrelated to commercial performance, but it could also allow South Africa to position itself as a reliable supplier where competing relationships break down.

2028 outlook depends on disease, ports and diplomacy

AgriSA’s 2028 scenarios show a wide range of possible export earnings. The base case projects R135 billion-R150 billion, assuming partial containment of foot-and-mouth disease, manageable tensions with the EU, steady African market growth and gradual logistics improvements despite a moderate El Niño. Under adverse conditions, earnings could fall to R85 billion-R105 billion because of tighter EU restrictions, continued disease outbreaks, lost US trade benefits, deteriorating logistics and severe drought.

The favourable scenario puts earnings at R165 billion-R180 billion, but requires foot-and-mouth disease containment, better EU access, a rollback of US tariffs, stronger intra-African trade, improved port performance and favourable La Niña conditions. AgriSA considers the simultaneous alignment of all those factors unlikely.

The organisation therefore recommends defending the existing R124.6 billion surplus through phytosanitary compliance, disease containment and port investment before pursuing R20 billion-R50 billion of potential additional growth from Africa and new markets. Its warning covers three platforms that cannot be treated as permanent: the R44.9 billion citrus franchise, the R94.4 billion African trade corridor and the R1.16 billion lamb export business.