South Africa cuts citrus export forecast again as conflict, floods and port delays hit shipments
South Africa has lowered its 2026 citrus export forecast for the second time, from 209.4 million to 196.5 million 15 kg boxes. FreshFruitPortal reports that disruption linked to the war in Iran, severe weather, port bottlenecks and weaker destination markets are constraining shipments.
Forecast falls to 196.5 million boxes
South Africa’s citrus industry has reduced its export forecast for the second time this season, cutting projected shipments from 209.4 million 15 kg boxes at the start of the campaign to 196.5 million boxes. According to FreshFruitPortal, the latest estimate is 6% below the industry’s original expectations.
The revision removes 12.9 million boxes from the initial forecast. It comes after an earlier update released at the beginning of August, when the industry cited normal adjustments by growers as the season progressed. The latest reduction is broader and reflects logistical, economic and weather-related pressures affecting production and access to overseas markets.
Navels record the largest reduction
Every citrus category in the Citrus Growers’ Association’s latest forecast has been revised lower except lemons. Navel orange exports show the steepest decline, falling 19% from an initial projection of 30 million boxes to 24.3 million boxes. That represents a reduction of 5.7 million boxes.
Grapefruit shipments are now forecast at 16.1 million boxes, nearly 2 million boxes below the opening estimate and down 9.5%. Mandarin projections have fallen 6.5% to 49.3 million boxes, while the estimate for Valencia oranges has been cut 8% to 56.6 million boxes.
Valencias are in peak season, but their forecast was revised down for a third time in early September. The industry body described the campaign as an “unusual season,” indicating that the adjustment process has continued beyond the broader revisions to total citrus exports.
Lemons are the only exception. Their export estimate has risen 9.3%, from nearly 46 million 15 kg boxes at the beginning of the season to more than 50 million boxes. The increase partly offsets reductions in oranges, grapefruit and mandarins but does not prevent the overall forecast from falling.
Middle East access and domestic logistics tighten
Boitshoko Ntshabele, chief executive of the Citrus Growers’ Association, attributed the latest revision to several external risks materialising simultaneously. FreshFruitPortal reported that disruption linked to the war in Iran has raised costs and, more importantly for exporters, closed access to the Middle East. The region normally accounts for 20% of South African citrus sales and is one of the industry’s largest markets.
Production was also affected by severe rain and flooding on two occasions at the beginning of the year. Ntshabele said some orchards were destroyed. Exporters have simultaneously faced continuing port disruptions and bottlenecks, limiting the industry’s ability to move fruit during the shipping season.
The CGA also pointed to weak conditions in important destination markets, where consumer purchasing power has declined over the past year. The combination of smaller export availability, interrupted market access and port constraints leaves growers and traders managing different risks across citrus categories: sharp volume losses in navels, lower projections for Valencias, mandarins and grapefruit, and a larger lemon crop seeking buyers.
