South Africa cuts 2026 citrus export forecast after floods and Middle East disruption
South Africa’s citrus industry has lowered its 2026 export forecast to 205.3 million 15-kilogram cartons from 209.4 million. Flooding in major producing provinces, Middle East disruption, port congestion and rising shipping costs have weighed on the season.
Forecast lowered but record remains possible
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa has reduced its 2026 citrus export forecast to 205.3 million cartons, each weighing 15 kilograms, from an earlier projection of 209.4 million. The revision cuts the expected volume by 4.1 million cartons as the industry contends with weather damage, logistics constraints and weaker conditions in important overseas markets.
Despite the downgrade, the forecast would still represent a record. Ecofin Agency reported that South Africa exported 203.4 million cartons in 2025, when it overtook Spain as the world’s largest citrus exporter. EWN cited the association’s chief operating officer, Paul Hardman, as putting the previous season at about 204 million cartons and the revised 2026 estimate at just over 205 million. The figures differ slightly because of rounding, but both accounts place the current forecast above last year’s shipments.
Floods disrupt two major producing regions
Ecofin Agency, citing details reported by Reuters, said severe flooding in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape prompted the revision. The two provinces together account for nearly 45% of South African citrus production. Flooding interrupted harvesting, reduced output and complicated the movement of fruit during the export campaign.
Port congestion has added to the pressure on supply chains. Delays matter particularly for fresh citrus because longer journeys can reduce quality and the remaining commercial shelf life. The local processing industry is absorbing as much leftover fruit as possible, Hardman told EWN, providing an alternative outlet for produce that cannot be exported as planned.
Middle East routes and demand under pressure
The Middle East normally receives about 19% of South Africa’s citrus exports, according to EWN, while Ecofin Agency put the share at about 20%. Conflict in the region disrupted demand and transport at the start of the export season. Hardman said much of the fruit travels through the Strait of Hormuz and is tailored to Middle Eastern buyers, making rapid diversion to other markets difficult.
Alternative routes add a couple of weeks to delivery times, according to Hardman, increasing costs and creating risks for fruit quality. Ecofin Agency also reported a sharp rise in shipping tariffs. Retail price caps maintained by some Gulf markets restrict exporters’ ability to pass those additional logistics costs to customers. EWN said growers are also facing lower prices, an unfavorable exchange rate and new US tariffs. Hardman expects some growers to make no profit this season despite the projected increase in total export volume.
European rules create additional costs
Europe, South Africa’s largest citrus market, presents a separate regulatory challenge. Since 2022, the European Union has required cold-treatment protocols intended to limit the risk of false codling moth. The measures require fruit to remain at very low temperatures for extended periods, increasing investment needs for cooling, monitoring and storage. South Africa is also challenging EU controls related to citrus black spot, which have led to tighter inspections and additional spraying requirements.
The industry is watching planned regulatory alignment between the EU and the United Kingdom. Britain has maintained a more flexible framework for South African citrus since Brexit, but London and Brussels have been working since 2025 to harmonize rules covering plants, animals, food and animal feed. Implementation is expected from mid-2027. Growers fear the change could extend stricter EU requirements to the British market, adding another cost and compliance risk after an already difficult 2026 season.
