Serbia’s Large Wheat Crop Faces Slower Exports and Transport Bottlenecks
Serbia harvested between 3.8 million and 3.966 million tonnes of wheat, with preliminary official data showing annual growth of 7.7%. Exports fell from about 120,000 tonnes in July to 90,000 tonnes in August as low Danube water levels and railway works raised transport costs.
Harvest exceeds domestic requirements
Serbia has produced one of its largest recent wheat crops, but transport constraints are slowing the movement of the surplus into export markets. Preliminary results published by Serbia’s Statistical Office and reported by B92 put production at 3.966 million tonnes as of September 5. That was 7.7% above the previous year and 31.8% higher than the 2016-2025 average.
UNA reported a slightly lower seasonal estimate of about 3.8 million tonnes, based on an average yield of roughly six tonnes per hectare. The publication said this volume was sufficient to cover domestic consumption and leave wheat available for export. The difference between the two production figures reflects the estimates cited by the respective sources; final official crop, fruit and grape production data for 2026 are due in March 2027.
Monthly exports fall below preferred pace
Export performance weakened after the start of the agricultural marketing year. Serbia shipped about 120,000 tonnes of wheat in July, but the volume declined to approximately 90,000 tonnes in August, according to UNA. Zdravko Šajatović, director of Žitounija, told Dnevnik that an export pace of around 100,000 tonnes per month would be preferable for Serbia over the marketing year.
Italy remains Serbia’s leading wheat customer, but shipments to that market also slowed. Exports to Italy fell from about 50,000 tonnes in July to 40,000 tonnes in August. The decline is commercially significant because the large harvest increases the amount that producers, storage operators and traders need to place while domestic prices remain exposed to international competition and logistics costs.
River and rail constraints raise costs
Low water levels on the Danube have prevented barges from operating at full capacity. According to Šajatović, cargo loads have been reduced by almost half. At the same time, railway reconstruction in Croatia and Slovenia has made transport to Italy slower and more expensive. Serbian wheat is consequently being carried to Italy by truck, adding further costs and weakening its competitiveness.
Regional supply is also limiting Serbia’s room in foreign markets. Šajatović said silos in Romania and Bulgaria were full, while their proximity to the port of Constanța gave exporters in those countries easier access to overseas buyers. War-related risks around Russia and Ukraine continue to affect ports, shipping and insurance costs, while the USDA’s September report estimated global wheat production at about 822 million tonnes.
Prices offer no clear winter signal
Wheat was trading at about 22.5 dinars per kilogram on the Novi Sad Commodity Exchange. UNA also cited wheat futures at around $268 per tonne in Chicago and a Paris price of about €244 per tonne. Šajatović said it was difficult to predict whether wheat prices would rise during the winter of 2026/2027.
For Serbian exporters, the immediate constraint is therefore not crop availability but the cost and reliability of market access. Higher Danube water levels and cheaper transport would support a steadier export programme. Until those conditions improve, traders must manage a large domestic surplus against strong regional supply, uncertain global demand and infrastructure that restricts the speed at which grain can reach Serbia’s principal buyers.
